If Smoak doesn't work out...

[Igoe4Mariners]

Where do the M's turn for first baseman of the future? It seems they put all their chips in the "Smoak pans out basket", and it's not working out well.

I don't want to cut him off too soon, but I have to admit each game is making it harder and harder to believe in him. He's beginning to run out of time.

[TellItToTheDA]

I would have to think Liddi's next in line for the job, with Catricala not far behind. Maybe even Rich Poythress can keep up the nice start (.291/.378/.419 with 15 RBIs in Jackson).

[clarknova]

I would think if they can't find a suitable alternative within the organization that they will look outside. They were ready to offer Fielder a pretty gigantic chunk of change to play first base this season. They know they need power, and the corner infield spots are great places for it. I hope Smoak realizes the potential we traded for, but it doesn't always work out that way.

[Igoe4Mariners]

I would think if they can't find a suitable alternative within the organization that they will look outside. They were ready to offer Fielder a pretty gigantic chunk of change to play first base this season. They know they need power, and the corner infield spots are great places for it. I hope Smoak realizes the potential we traded for, but it doesn't always work out that way.

And it never seems to work out the way if you're the Mariners.

[JosephC]

I would think if they can't find a suitable alternative within the organization that they will look outside. They were ready to offer Fielder a pretty gigantic chunk of change to play first base this season. They know they need power, and the corner infield spots are great places for it. I hope Smoak realizes the potential we traded for, but it doesn't always work out that way.
This is what I think also. I have a feeling one of Paxton, Hultzen, or Walker will be traded similar to the Montero trade for another bat. We need the bats more than we need pitchers. Sign Vargas to a 3 year deal (I'm on the Vargas bandwagon), lock him up, and get a bat or two.

[bigsexyy81]

I've been a huge fan of Smoakie since he came over. All my buddies keep looking at me like I'm crazy but i have stuck by him, waiting and waiting for him to live up to all of our favorite 'P' word.

I'm over him. Its been documented how to beat him (any pitch other than a fastball). He can't even get consistent walks anymore. He's batting under .200. Figgins has a better average and more RBIs (shaking my head).

We've got players in Tacoma and on the bench that deserve a shot. I'd hate to ditch him, but you only get so much time to prove yourself.

I say put up with him till the All Star break, and call it at that point if he hasn't made significant strides.

[Mariners51]

I hate counting a player out, but Smoak has looked lost his entire career outside of one hot streak. He has no pitch recognition. And he's got the longest swing I've seen.

[206HoopsFan]

Extremely disappointing. I remember being amped when they dealt Cliff Lee for him because he was the guy that all the scouts/analysts were high on in terms of the guy who had the best value. Mark Texierra was a name I remember getting thrown around a lot. I hate to pile on someone who just lost their dad, but it is frustrating thinking of the other prospects we could have possibly gotten for Lee/traded for Montero right off the bat and traded Pineda for someone else.

[Nateyb24]

I don't think he is ever going to live up to his potential he has no idea how to identify balls and strikes i was glad when we got him but he is just whiffing all the time.

[clarknova]

On trading stars and cautionary tales for the future of our own "big three":

When a team trades a star because they absolutely need to, as they either can't afford him or the player will almost certainly not re-sign with the team (Cliff Lee) you take a huge risk, as you always do with prospects. When the prospects live up to their potential, the GM is a genius. When they don't, he's an idiot who can't evaluate talent. I decided to look around baseball at other trades similar to the Lee/Smoak trade for some perspective on our predicament and I started with Oakland. I chose Oakland because they used to have a "big three". If you've seen Moneyball, you've seen how they are glaringly absent from the film, and were instrumental in the 2002 playoff run and record breaking win streak. I thought I remembered Oakland doing pretty well with those guys in trades (aside from Barry Zito, who I knew made it to free agency) as I remember Dan Haren coming over, but I couldn't recall who else they got for Mulder and Hudson and how those trades worked out. Here's a recap:

Oakland's big three:

Barry Zito-
We all know the story. Cy Young winner, to a contract that makes Donkey's look like a bargain. But there were rumors up until the trade deadline that Oakland would deal him. In the end, Billy Beane decided to just hold on to him for the rest of the 2006 season as they went all the way to the ALCS. One of the big rumors was him going to the Mets for a package built around Lastings Milledge. The other, a trade that almost happened but the Phillies GM finally decided against it was Barry Zito to Philadelphia for Michael Bourne, Ryan Madsen, and Chase Utley. As it happened, they held on to him and got nothing.

Mark Mulder-
This is by far the most productive trade of these "big three". Oakland traded him to St. Louis in 2004 for Dan Haren, Kiki Calero and (then catcher) Daric Barton. As we know, Haren was lights out and was flipped 3 years later with Connor Robertson for Carlos González, Brett Anderson, Chris Carter, Aaron Cunningham, and Greg Smith. Oakland then flipped CarGo and Greg Smith with Houston Street to Colorado for Matt Holliday 6 months later. Holliday sucked in Oakland if you recall. After a year, Holliday was traded to St. Louis for prospects Brett Wallace, Clayton Mortensen, and Shane Peterson.

Tim Hudson-
Before the 2005 season, Hudson was traded to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for Charles Thomas, Dan Meyer and Juan Cruz.

So, basically Oakland had three of the most productive pitchers of the last decade. Three All-Stars. The only thing of real value they got in return for any of them was three years of Dan Haren. Of course, I'm not taking payroll into account. My point is that many of these prospects who's names we don't recognize were thought of as top tier prospects in their organizations. There are SO many prospects in the minors though, and a limited number of big league roster spots. The chances that ANY of them reach their potential is pretty slim. Funny that the only real star that Oakland got in any of these trades, Carlos Gonzalez, they immediately traded away.

So many of these deals don't work out.

CC Sabathia-
On July 7, 2008, Sabathia was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers for Matt LaPorta, Michael Brantley, Zach Jackson and Rob Bryson.

Johan Santana-
During 2007–2008 off-season, Santana was traded from the Twins to the New York Mets, for Carlos Gomez, Phil Humber (yes, THAT Phil Humber), Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey.

Cliff Lee-
On December 16, 2009, the Phillies traded Lee to the Seattle Mariners in exchange for J. C. Ramírez, Phillippe Aumont and Tyson Gillies.

Zach Greinke- (jury is still out on Escobar)
On December 19, he was traded to the Brewers with Yuniesky Betancourt and 2 million dollars for Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain, Jeremy Jeffress, and Jake Odorizzi.

I do agree with 206HoopsFan in that the real bummer is what we could have gotten for Pineda if we already had Montero. However, it's also possible that they hold on to Pineda because they can't get the star bat they require for him. Rumors had the M's being rebuffed by Miami for Mike (Giancarlo) Stanton and the Blue Jays for Brett Lawrie. The Yankees said yes, but had they not, would the M's have even dealt him to a willing team? We'll never know, but on the less gloomy outlook side there is a scenario where we trade Lee to the Yankees for Montero, then don't trade Pineda and he blows his arm out for us. It's just as likely.

[Igoe4Mariners]

Smoak has been dropped down to No. 7 in tonight's lineup.

[Igoe4Mariners]

Clarknova, nice research. You should be an investigative reporter.

It'd be a major risk to trade one of our "big three" for a bigger bat IMO. At this point, I think we hold our hope on Liddi if Smoak can't get it done. He is still very young (23) and has actually looked competent at the plate and in the field. He's a much better looking athlete than Smoak and now, he's even got a shorter swing. You have to wonder if we had given him as many at bats as we have done with Smoak, what point would he be at now?

[Nateyb24]

If Smoak doesn't turn out and Beavan (SP?) keeps pitching the way he is at least we got something out of the deal the Phillies just got fleeced in the Lee deal.