Felix Hernandez long term deal being discussed.

[JosephC]

http://img195.imageshack.us/img195/6391/hernandeztopper.jpg

Shows that Jack Z's goal is to keep Felix in Seattle. Good plan!
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/10357594

Looks like it's going to be awhile until we hear any actual news, but at least negotiations have started.

[megamariner]

I wonder if the deal will get done this off season? His arbitration salary this year won't be horrible, but at the same time you want to know the future of Felix as soon as possible (for trade value free agent acquistions etc)

[JosephC]

I'm hearing if they wanna sign Felix for 6 years, it would be somewhere in the 80 mil to 100 mil range. Almost makes you scratch your head and wonder if he's worth it? Unless we get a serious home discount. Killer pitcher, but what if he goes cold? That's worse than having el Buffalo bench hugging. At least el Buffalo can carry Ichiro on his shoulders easily.

[TheNaitch]

I'm hearing if they wanna sign Felix for 6 years, it would be somewhere in the 80 mil to 100 mil range. Almost makes you scratch your head and wonder if he's worth it? Unless we get a serious home discount. Killer pitcher, but what if he goes cold? That's worse than having el Buffalo bench hugging. At least el Buffalo can carry Ichiro on his shoulders easily.

13-16 a year for Hernandez sounds good to me if it locks him in for awhile.

100x better than Silva getting 12(?) a year.

[megamariner]

obviously locking down Felix for 6 years with 17+ a season is risky. Everywhere i read/listen they talk about his proper mechanics and the fact he is young.... 23 years old.

since 2006 he's been worth 18.7 WAR. 79.1 Million Dollars on the open market. (spending about 4.3 million per WAR.)
We've been lucky to pay the guy 5 million over those 3 years.

Lets say we give him six years. assume his WAR value for the first two years is average of what he's put up 4.6 WAR a season. Years 3 and 4, 3.4 WAR a season. This is assuming one year with mild regression (4.1 WAR) and one year missed time, 2.8 WAR. There could be some regression in there, but again with Felix he will be 26 and 27 those years in his contract....

Final two years lets just throw out 3.8 WAR each season. Felix will turn 29 a week into the final year of his contract.

Final WAR for his six year contract: 23.6
Cost on open market (estimate of course) 103.84 million.

Where do i sign? i mean seriously, this is assuming over the next two years Felix puts up his AVERAGE WAR from his first 4 seasons, 4.6. This is also assuming he regresses some .5 WAR when hes 26. Again i assume he gets hurt for a chuck of one season, 2.8 WAR.

THEN for the last two years of his contract, 28 and 29 years old. I knock it down to 3.8, hes regressing that's all i thought about here. (im trying to lay out a bad case scenario)

So if all these things happen he is still worth the 6 years 100 million right?

CC Sabathia, over his first four seasons, 15 WAR (3.7 less than Felix)

CC will turn 30 next season. Let's see what CC who started his career great, did during his 24-29 seasons?

2004 - 3.1 (24 years old)
2005- 4.1
2006- 5.5
2007- 7.1
2008- 7.3
2009- 6.0 (29 years old)

He got better. Everyone pitcher, human, cat, dog is different. But if my scenario above with risky/bad case situations making the contract make sense; shouldn't something like seeing a pitcher continue to improve in their PRIME be reason to have Felix in to sign tomorrow?

I am going to get this up on my blog (a little more edited shortly, check it out)

[xxtinynickxx]

6 years 80-100 mil would be awesome, id love to see a 10 year contract but that maybe a lil to long hehe.

[JosephC]

Seeing Felix in a mariners uniform for 6 more years would be really good. I'd like to see Felix be another player like Edgar who only plays for the Mariners. Probably too much to ask, but that would be cool.