At what point do we worry...

[Igoe4Mariners]

About Ackley not hitting like a No. 2 overall hitter?

[Claudiu]

About Ackley not hitting like a No. 2 overall hitter?

You start worrying...right about now

[TellItToTheDA]

He had a 13-game hitting streak, and hit in 16 of 17 games going from May 3rd to the 21st. Yeah, I'm not worrying, because I see no reason to. A stretch of literally 4 bad games has knocked his average from .257 back to .246. You have to look deeper than just the surface numbers.

And, at the very worst, Ackley may have very well been hit by the sophomore slump. But if you look at two of the most recent victims of the slump, Troy Tulowitzki and Geovany Soto, they bounced back fine the following season. And this is what I consider a worst case scenario.

[206HoopsFan]

They showed some stat during the game saying he's reached base in 20 of the last 22 games or something like that. Still, the batting average is down quite a bit. I'm not really worried about him though, like DA was saying I'd say if anything it's a sophomore slump.

[Igoe4Mariners]

I'm not saying he's a bad hitter, I just figured he'd be an elite one. .300+ at minimum with gap power. I mean, when we picked him at No. 2, every scout said he was a sure thing, but right now it's looking like he's trying to pull everything and that perfect eye everyone talked about isn't showing up. I've seen him take a ton of fastballs right down the middle in hitter's counts that he should be attacking.

Maybe he's putting too much pressure on himself and trying to do too much? After all, all this bobblehead mess for a young kid can get into a player's head. I still think we haven't seen the best of him yet, but I want him to be an elite hitter like a Chase Utley in his prime or a Brandon Phillips type second baseman. We didn't draft him 2nd overall to be a .270 hitter with little pop. If Ackley flops and isn't a legit middle of the order hitter, then I'm convinced we're cursed.

[clarknova]

I don't know Igoe, I think if you're banking on Dustin Ackley to become one of the top 3 or 4 power hitting 2nd basemen in all of baseball, you're probably in for a disappointment. I'm not saying he can't hit 30 home runs, I'm saying he probably won't on a consistent basis, but... Some perspective:

#3 - Donovan Tate
#4 - Tony Sanchez
#13 - Grant Green
#16 - Bobby Borchering
#17 - A.J. Pollock
#21 - Jiovanni Mier
#23 - Jared Mitchell
#24 - Randal Grichuck
#25 - Mike Trout
#27 - Nick Franklin
#28 - Reymond Fuentes
#29 - Slade Heathcott
#30 - LeVon Washington
#31 - Brett Jackson
#32 - Tim Wheeler

These are the position players drafted (with their slots listed) after Dustin Ackley in the 1st round of the 2009 MLB draft. There are two hitters on this list that have ever played a major league game. A.J. Pollock made his major league debut this season for the Diamondbacks and was sent back to AAA after 20 games, and we all know Mike Trout (although, Mike Trout has only 66 major league games played between this year and last). My points are that Dustin Ackley has been, by a huge margin, the most productive position player taken in the 2009 draft. I even checked the later rounds. Most of the guys on the above list aren't even on AAA teams (including Nick Franklin), and also that I don't think the organization, or most baseball pundits think he's a middle of the order bat. He wasn't drafted as a power hitter, he was taken as the best hitter available, and thus far he's been that. Two huge signs that the Mariners don't see him as a power hitter- He's hitting leadoff and I think that's where they like him because he still is the best hitter skill-wise on the team, and they forced him to learn 2nd base. They put him at 2nd because that is not a power position and a good hitting 2nd baseman is a rarity. Any power they get from his bat is pure bonus IMO.

Mike Trout has a real possibility of being the best player drafted in 2009, but he's outplayed what everyone thought he would do to such an insane level. He was the steal of that draft, by far. He was passed on by 24 teams. Nick Franklin has the potential to be even more surprising due to the huge reach everyone thought the M's were making when they drafted him.

Ackley is going to be a good hitter, and I say that because that's what he's done before, even at the major league level. He's going to be a huge asset to us as a lead off hitter and that's what his skill set is. I don't know what retarded mind game he has going on right now that's causing him to strike out at a ridiculous rate. He's got an adjustment to make obviously, but I wouldn't get too worried about a 2nd year player's struggles over 1 month. It took Brandon Phillips 5 years to put together a "good" season.

To answer your question though, I would say if this trend continues and he just keeps getting worse, I would start to worry sometime after the All Star break. Dustin Ackley has yet to play one full season. He has 136 career games between last year and this year. Coincidentally, in Chase Utley's first two seasons he played a total of 137 games. He hit .252 had 103 hits and 15 home runs. He slugged .420. Dustin Ackley in one less game has 137 hits and is hitting .263 with 9 home runs. His career slugging % is .394. More hits, more often, less pop. Still a pretty damn good hitter for his first run in the majors.

[Igoe4Mariners]

Yeah, I'm not saying I expect him to pop 30 HRs every year. It's just, it seems like every top pick we've had over the last number of years has been a disappointment and I want Ackley to become that "impact bat" that we so desperately need. It doesn't have to be a ton of home runs, but a .330 hitters with 15 HRs, plus gap power was what many had him projected as coming out of college. As for the Utley and Phillip's comparisons, Utley was drafted No. 15 overall out of UCLA, so that's a good one, but Phillips was a second rounder straight out of high school, so he'd be expected to take a few years to adjust to professional baseball.

Ackley was arguably the best college hitter ever with three straight seasons of a .400 average at UNC. He was expected to fast track to the majors (which he has) and hit right away. His defense being the only question (this stuff according to scouts).

Now, don't get me wrong, I'm nowhere near writing him off yet. I still think he will be a .300 hitter and a guy that delivers close to what I expect him to by the time it's all said and done. I mainly just started this thread to get some conversation going.

[clarknova]

I get you dude. I just wanted to offer some perspective because I hear a lot of understandable impatience with the recent draft picks. The Mariners had some super shitty drafts prior to 2009, but the last 4 1st round picks have been Ackley, Franklin, Walker, and Hultzen. That's just fucking awesome by comparison. Comparison to the previous front offices and most other front offices in baseball if you weigh it by draft slot. It just takes more time than less than a full season to get there, and I wanted to point out that the Mariners can only be graded on how their drafted players have performed in the minors and what scouts and analysts think of them for the most part which is pretty rad, and very highly. There are not many highly drafted hitters since 2009 even playing in the majors, let alone reaching their potential and Dustin Ackley has out performed almost all drafted hitters since 2009. The Mariners have basically had one player come up as a rookie and just destroy pitchers in his first "year". A-Rod (three years after high school). Even Junior struggled at first. I'm not implying that Ackley is going to be anything like those guys, just that he's doing pretty good, all things considered and I hope this current display is an anomaly.

Regarding the 30 homer deal, that's about what Utley averaged in peak seasons and what I would hope from a middle of the order bat. I agree that Ackley doesn't have the pop to hit 30 homers, so he can't really be a Chase Utley. Phillips? Upper .270's hitter with about 20 homers a year? Yeah, I think that's possible. Maybe a bit higher average (closer to .300) and a few less homers. Ackley was the best college hitter in 2009 and he'll certainly be better as he matures. Shit, Brendan Ryan hit in the upper .370's in college.

I would have to look back, but I remember the Wade Boggs comp being thrown around a ton as a ceiling by analysts. That would be awesome, but probably not realistic. I could certainly see Ackley hitting around .300 and I think he will. To me, he's the leadoff hitter on a championship contender, with better pop in the middle of the order. At least two 30 homer threats. Roberto Alomar would be a guy I'd like to see him become, but Brandon Phillips would do, however I think he can out hit Phillips average wise. I'm not saying the Utley ceiling comp (I've heard that a lot) is impossible, just maybe not reasonable. It's like the Cliff Lee comp for Danny Hultzen, it's possible, sure... But I won't be disappointed if he's still good but somewhat less amazing.

I'm trying to get the conversation going too, not argue. Don't get me wrong. I fully expect Ackley to improve and once he gets a full season under his belt, things could get really interesting. He's already proven a ton of know-it-alls wrong with his defense. I certainly am not going to sell him short either!

[JosephC]

I am not impressed with Ackley so far, my view is pretty much exactly what Igoe said. I expect more, and I expect more before his Arb years are up. Time to start showing us something instead of a K. If we give these young guys so many years to "show something", then you have to have some free agents along with them. Because at some point they won't be on our team.

We own the pitching, can't draft the best bats. I dunno what to say about it.

[206HoopsFan]

Yeah, I'm not saying I expect him to pop 30 HRs every year. It's just, it seems like every top pick we've had over the last number of years has been a disappointment and I want Ackley to become that "impact bat" that we so desperately need. It doesn't have to be a ton of home runs, but a .330 hitters with 15 HRs, plus gap power was what many had him projected as coming out of college. As for the Utley and Phillip's comparisons, Utley was drafted No. 15 overall out of UCLA, so that's a good one, but Phillips was a second rounder straight out of high school, so he'd be expected to take a few years to adjust to professional baseball.

Ackley was arguably the best college hitter ever with three straight seasons of a .400 average at UNC. He was expected to fast track to the majors (which he has) and hit right away. His defense being the only question (this stuff according to scouts).

Now, don't get me wrong, I'm nowhere near writing him off yet. I still think he will be a .300 hitter and a guy that delivers close to what I expect him to by the time it's all said and done. I mainly just started this thread to get some conversation going.

Yeah I understand, I'm not saying that we should be happy with what he's doing, but he's still young and developing. I'm hoping he can be the .330 hitter you were describing when all is said and done and anything else will be a disappointment compared to his projection. What's disappointing though, is even if he does measure up to that, Mike Trout was picked later that year who has ridiculous upside.

[Igoe4Mariners]

Yeah I understand, I'm not saying that we should be happy with what he's doing, but he's still young and developing. I'm hoping he can be the .330 hitter you were describing when all is said and done and anything else will be a disappointment compared to his projection. What's disappointing though, is even if he does measure up to that, Mike Trout was picked later that year who has ridiculous upside.

Trout playing up north, where it's cold and they don't play baseball year-round, really caused a lot of teams to miss out on him. The Angels did their scouting and it's paying off.

[Igoe4Mariners]

So Ackley isn't in the lineup yet again tonight

[TellItToTheDA]

So Ackley isn't in the lineup yet again tonight

His splits this year are quite awful against lefties (which Harrison is), but I still don't get the logic after giving him the off day Friday.

[Igoe4Mariners]

His splits this year are quite awful against lefties (which Harrison is), but I still don't get the logic after giving him the off day Friday.

I don't understand why Ichiro never sits? If Wedge wants to rest all his vets, then sit the oldest of the bunch down every now and then!

[206HoopsFan]

I don't understand why Ichiro never sits? If Wedge wants to rest all his vets, then sit the oldest of the bunch down every now and then!

I'm with you there, of course I'm pretty much done with Ichiro period. I'm not someone who has bashed him consistently over the years, but he doesn't really give us anything as a 39 year old slap hitter taking up a quarter of our payroll.

[evergreenmachine]

i am always nervous, even when I'm winning lol