What about Smoak ?

[LeFrançais]

What do you guys think of Justin Smoak right now ?

I have a lot of sympathy for him, and would like him to perform and become the run producer we think he can be. I know he has been through a lot last year, been traded in blockbuster fashion but for know he is only known for his defense at 1st B.

He had some success on some road trips but he is way too much inconsistent. Does his future in the organisation could be in jeopardy if Carp for example does good offensively ?

Be happy to know what's your opinion.

[clarknova]

His descent into sub-mediocrity has been surprising to me, and to a lot of other people. He was thought to be one of the best prospects in baseball not too long ago. One of the things I've noticed about him this season is that as his success rate regarding making solid contact and driving the ball has declined, so has his approach at the plate. He was heralded as a switch hitter with 30 homer power and patience, which is a rare combination.

He has time to turn it around as he is under club control for a few years but he's just not getting it done. 20 homer power while flirting with .200 and hitting almost no doubles just isn't going to hack it. I hope he figures it out, but this just happens sometimes. The list of top prospects that didn't reach their potential is far longer than the list of ones that did, and sadly, switch hitter or no- most good to great hitters are much farther along at this point in their careers. He's shown flashes of what he can be, but flashes are not enough. He's actually regressed in his development. Before he was sent down I read an article that listed him as statistically the 2nd worst full time hitter in baseball in 2012: http://www.ussmariner.com/2012/07/23/time-to-send-justin-smoak-down/

I'm hopeful that it's something like Saunders dealt with early in his career, or Ackley earlier this year, but I'm mentally prepared to move on and start the search for the first baseman of the future for this organization. I get the feeling the Mariners are as well.

[LeFrançais]

I'm hopeful that it's something like Saunders dealt with early in his career, or Ackley earlier this year, but I'm mentally prepared to move on and start the search for the first baseman of the future for this organization. I get the feeling the Mariners are as well.

I know what you mean as Saunders resurgence has been a good surprise for me, it's right that Justin doesn't put at bats like Ackley does.Even in a slump it seems that Ackley can turn it around while making good contact. We don't see that from Smoak anymore.

And I don't know if he'll have enough opportunities to show anything after his AAA session. He may have been send down too late (as we didn't have a lot of options to fill 1st base maybe).

[georgmi]

I think the key takeaway, and the best reason for hope, is this:

as his success rate regarding making solid contact and driving the ball has declined, so has his approach at the plate

This suggests to me that a large part of his struggles are in his head. See also his comments earlier this season when asked about some warning-track shots at Safeco: "I'm giving it everything I've got"; this is a man who is frustrated and pressing. Put him somewhere where he can have a little success, get his body under control, and start to develop some consistency, and I think (hope!) you'll see a comeback that's nearly as precipitous as the collapse was.

[evergreenmachine]

Great thread. I am not down on smoak at all and know he can produce at the major league level. Did you know - Justin smoak still leads the mariners in home runs?

I think your initial sentiments about his mental state are not far off...remember this is a guy that had hither world on his shoulder in both the Texas and mariner organizations, and then had his dad pass away mid year last year in his early 20s. His dad was also his mentor and hiring coach. Let this sink in for a moment...

Justin smoak still has massive upside in my humble opinion. It may be cliche but what he really needs to do is find himself. What kind player does he want to be, not front office types or fans or family...maybe everyone thinks he's a home run masher but maybe he needs to adapt to become a line drive hitter. That is both a physical and a mental change.

I think he can do the physical change part the question is can he bounce back mentally from a tough stretch?

[SeaTownJosh]

Once those fences come in then smoak will tear it up.

[Igoe4Mariners]

Hoping that Carp keeps hitting like he has been and we can leave him in AAA.

[clarknova]

I'm just hoping one of them plays at above replacement level either for the sake of trading them, or for contributions to the team. We really need production out of that position. Imagine how different this season would be going if we had a legit 1st baseman and a legit corner outfielder from the get go. We get those filled out better and shore up the rotation, and this team is suddenly good, and on its way to great.

[LeFrançais]

At the beggining of this thread i just wanted to check everybody 's opinion on the guy. I'm pleased we still want to give him his time to show the value we think he have (or may have). At this point I don't wanna give up on him, I just regret that he may not be a key of the young core of players.
Let's go Justin show us what you can do !

[206HoopsFan]

Of course I hope he can turn it around given what we gave up for him, and he seems like a good guy that's had to deal with some tough circumstances. However, he's been a huge hole in our lineup (minus a few good moments) and I think the recent success we've been having is at least partly due to getting him out of there and playing Carp & company who have been hitting. Only time will tell, I personally don't see him turning it around, but I also never thought Saunders would be a good player, and we can't forget about Lahair. I'll bet they at least hang onto him until his contract is up so they know for sure who he is. But if the people up with the MLB team continue to hit I don't really see any reason to move him up from AAA unless he catches fire. From what I've heard he's even been struggling in Tacoma so it's not looking good for him at the moment.

[clarknova]

Interesting side note (to me), since you mentioned Bryan Lahair... Check out his splits:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/splits/_/id/28703/bryan-lahair

He had an MVP caliber April, an above average May, a below average June, and an absolutely horrible July.

I was looking at this the other day and it reminded me of another player from last year:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/splits/_/id/30175/year/2011/justin-smoak

Obviously the spread is a little uneven, but the precipitous drop off in July struck me, as did the progression towards bad. Lahair has a lot of time to turn the slump around, but he's struggling mightily right now, and I'm seeing much less crowing about him.

[evergreenmachine]

Add mike morse to the list of players who we didn't give a second chance to who are now raking

[evergreenmachine]

Oh yeah ever heard of this guy in cle I think his name is shin soo choo!

[206HoopsFan]

Oh yeah ever heard of this guy in cle I think his name is shin soo choo!

Well Choo never really got a chance here, same goes for Asdrubel Cabrera those were just two crappy Bevasi moves.

[LeFrançais]

How about adam jones...

[clarknova]

Let's just get these out of the way: David Ortiz, Rafael Soriano, Jason Veritek, Brandon Morrow, Carlos Guillen, Tino Martinez, Omar Visquel, Jeff Nelson, David Lowe... Chris Tillman? Are we counting R.A. Dickey?

[clarknova]

The thing is, name an organization... ANY organization and you can put together a pretty impressive list of players that were "given up on too soon" or traded for garbage... The "what might have beens".

What I like about the current regime is that, where as they've made some trades I didn't like (Morrow, Morse), and some I'm still in "wait and see" mode on (Fister), they have yet to trade ANY of their own draft picks. For better or worse, they've held on to ALL of them.

[LeFrançais]

For all those reasons let stick to this young core. Let them grow together, developp and learn how to win as a group. It's a long process for sure, patience needed, but if it works... An all made by herself team ! That's a reason to be proud to be fan of this team.

[Refman]

One thing to keep in mind is that Smoak only has 676 at bats in the minor leagues. Most prospects do not develop until they get at least twice as many minor leagues ABs. Smoak was rushed to the bigs way too soon and it has cost him. Hopefully an extended stint at Tacoma can turn him around and complete his development. Sadly though, the toothpaste may already be out of the tube for Justin. Once a kid is rushed to the bigs, sometimes it just ruins him.

[evergreenmachine]

carp with the line RBI today, what a difference he is making, could he be a full time 1b power bat?

While we are at it how long until olivi is gone and chone with him?

I'd like to see liddi and an oF brought up

[clarknova]

This suggests to me that a large part of his struggles are in his head. See also his comments earlier this season when asked about some warning-track shots at Safeco: "I'm giving it everything I've got"; this is a man who is frustrated and pressing. Put him somewhere where he can have a little success, get his body under control, and start to develop some consistency, and I think (hope!) you'll see a comeback that's nearly as precipitous as the collapse was.

Another strong indication of his struggles being a mental issue- Since being sent down to Tacoma he's committed 4 errors. He'd committed 2 in 89 games this season. He's got all the tools. He just needs to get his head right.

[LeFrançais]

Looks like Smoak is starting to be consistent, make that avg climb Justin, keep the streak going.