clarknova
08-17-2012, 10:45 AM
Due in large part to the fact that whenever a trading deadline is approaching, or passes, or Felix has a great performance, or a contending team is struggling with their rotation, or it's a day ending in "Y" - there is another article, or blog, or tweet, or belligerent Yankees fan stating, demanding, asking, whining, or screaming that we should trade our best player because we don't deserve him, he'll never win here and deserves to, we'll never get any better if we don't, or he's great so he has to play for an east coast powerhouse... I have decided to put my thoughts on the matter down. The media and non-Mariner fan response to Felix's perfect game, the greatest pitching performance by a Mariners pitcher ever, was annoying but not unexpected. It got me thinking though, and I wanted to offer a rebuttal to all of the noise- so here it comes. This is shaping up in my head to be a diatribe, as I'm prone to, so fair warning...
I want to address the position of the intelligent analyst and fan that believes it would be in the Mariners best interest to trade Felix Hernandez first. Not everything I read on this idea is totally ridiculous. I disagree (more on that later), but some of the things I've read are fairly logical. These are the most prevalent reasons held up as to why the Mariners should do this deal:
1. The Mariners have one of the better farm systems in baseball, but that strength is built almost entirely on pitching. The drop off between pitching and position players is enormous. This is based on upside and tools. Sure, you've got guys like Franklin, Zunino, Romero, Miller, etc. But those guys are not considered high upside players. For the most part the ceiling for these guys is "every day major leaguer", or "above average at their position" which is not bad, but is not super great either. Of course, they could outplay those projections, but most objective analysts do not think we have many all star caliber bats if any at all in the minors, and most of them think you need a star bat or two to win championships (the 2010 SF Giants aside).
2. The only ways to acquire the type of hitters you will need to succeed, especially considering the division we play in, is to pay huge money for them, or trade for them.
3. The Mariners, under the current regime have not paid for any top tier free agents and payroll has continued to fall. So, the assumption is that they won't. That eliminates the free agent option in people's minds and only leaves one way to acquire talented bats - trade for them.
4. The Mariners have 3 possible front end starters in the minor leagues, and more young high upside starters coming up behind them, and that is their area of strength from which to trade.
5. Their top hitting prospects are Nick Franklin and Mike Zunino. (I'm going to exceed the character limit again, aren't I?) Their young bats at the major league level have had tough years. Justin Smoak and Dustin Ackley have had disappointing seasons to say the least. They need bats.
6. If you have dirt cheap top end starters that won't be ready to reach their potential for a couple years, around the time that Felix's contract expires and you could get possibly (probably) the best haul of hitters ever traded for a starting pitcher, it makes sense to load up now and let them all grow into a contender together rather than lose Felix for nothing, assuming he doesn't re-sign, and still not have the hitters needed to win a pennant.
7. This is what teams do to get better long term. All of them in this position. It always happens. It doesn't always work, but this is the formula. It is really irritating to people that the Mariners don't seem to be interested in it.
Taking emotions and fan-dom out of the equation, this is a perfectly logical train of thought. By this logic, it makes perfect sense to do the deal. Think about it this way- If Felix was a Minnesota Twin, would you think it would make sense for them to hold on to him, or would you think it would be smarter to trade him for Giancarlo Stanton and others, or Profar and Olt, or some other ridiculous package? You might think the Twins, in their current state would be ridiculous to not do it. That is how people are looking at us. To be honest they have a point. However...
I don't think they should do it. And, it's not because I'm attached to him as a player (although, I am). My reasons are purely baseball related.
Jack Zduriencik (that is the first time I've written his last name without looking it up first) has made multiple statements about why he is not trading Felix, and what the long term plan is for the team. He basically feels that it would be robbing Peter to pay Paul, cutting of your nose to spite your face, and that he can't get fair value for him. In Jack's opinion, you can't win a title without a pitcher like that, and if you don't have one you're always looking for one which is why he gets constant calls about him from other GMs. So, he'd be trading Felix for prospects, and IF the prospects hit projections, then you are banking on Taijuan Walker turning into Felix Hernandez. The Mariners have been a team since the late 70's and have had a total of TWO pitchers of that caliber. Ever. I don't count Moyer. Moyer was good, but not an ace. Walker looks to have the tools of a great pitcher, but the chances that he becomes Felix Hernandez good are pretty slim. So, then where are we? We have bats (maybe) and not enough pitching to win a title? Then you're trying to acquire that front end stopper/ace pitcher and how many of them are there in all of baseball? 10?
I believe the Mariners intend to re-sign him. And if they can't, they'll do a deadline deal. Maybe they can't get a Profar-type player for him at that point, but probably a pretty awesome package of prospects. I think people underestimate what could be had for a hall of fame caliber pitcher at the trading deadline and overestimate the spread between what we could get for him now and what we could get for him then. The Yankees were willing to trade Montero + + for half a year of Cliff Lee. Then traded him for 5 years of Michael Pineda when he was considered a potential ace. What teams trade and what people think they know they will trade is almost always totally different.
The Mariners intend to spend on hitters. Jack has said so publicly, but he believes the team needs the core of dirt cheap talent to improve first. The team has gotten better this year, built on the second youngest roster in baseball, maybe the youngest now that Ichiro is gone, they have improved. I don't believe that the Mariners are just never going to spend as some do, and I don't think it's a super great idea to spend money on 2 WAR players to get us nowhere right now. That's just my opinion, and I know it's not a popular one. When Jack get on the radio and says plainly that they will go out and spend, but that now is not the right time and that you need a core of cheap talented players to win a championship, I believe him. I agree with him. I see it happening with other teams, and I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. He comes out and says they're going after Prince Fielder, but when some dying hyper-rich old man puts a championship on his bucket list and finally forks out the insane contract Boras was waiting for and out bids all other teams that were trying to get him, suddenly they won't spend and don't want to win? I don't get that at all. What is a conservative estimate of what the Mariners offer was? $170, $180 million dollars? Yeah, they obviously don't have the money. Whatever that offer was it was made with Ichiro on the books as well. They want the right players at the right position. They're going to spend, just not shell it out for a bunch of second tier guys that want multi-year contracts because guess what? If you have a bunch of guys making 7 - 10 million/year, THEN you can't spend!!! AND you still SUCK!
If they're going to spend on hitters, then it makes sense to keep Felix. It makes sense to trade one of the big three for a hitter, but not until their value is higher. James Paxton is a known commodity, but he's still a AA pitcher.
Regarding fair value- The argument has been made by Jack ("who's going to give me what I need for him?") and online (PI etc.) that Felix is untradable because in order to get fair value for him you'd need to get Mike Trout, or Bryce Harper or someone of that caliber, and those teams are not going to make that trade. Because 5+ years of minimum contract Mike Trout is more valuable right now than 2 years of 8 figure Felix Hernandez. It's just economics. Jurickson Profar is one of the top prospects in the minors. Is he enough for one of the best pitchers of the last decade? He hasn't even played a major league game yet. What I'm getting at is, when you start trying to think of deals, none of them make sense (and a lot of them, for either team).
Say what you want about Jack Zduriencik, but he's not stupid. He knows better than all of us where we are and what we can do with what we have. If he plans on keeping Felix Hernandez, he's going to go out and get bats. If he wasn't planning on it, he would trade Felix. To me, it's really that simple. Now, it just comes down to when he feels it is the right time to go and get them, who they are, and whether or not they're free agents or acquired via trade. Him keeping Felix gives me hope. It tells me that the plan is to build around him, when the time is right. If he traded Felix, THAT is when I'd start to worry. That would tell me that the Mariners are not planning to spend, and are going the full on Royals/Rays route. A lot of people think that's what we are, and because we haven't spent just to spend, that's where the perception comes from. When Jack comes out and says publicly that they're going to go the Rangers route (build build build, SPEND!), I take it on faith that he means it. If that is the case, by ALL MEANS keep Felix.
I want to address the position of the intelligent analyst and fan that believes it would be in the Mariners best interest to trade Felix Hernandez first. Not everything I read on this idea is totally ridiculous. I disagree (more on that later), but some of the things I've read are fairly logical. These are the most prevalent reasons held up as to why the Mariners should do this deal:
1. The Mariners have one of the better farm systems in baseball, but that strength is built almost entirely on pitching. The drop off between pitching and position players is enormous. This is based on upside and tools. Sure, you've got guys like Franklin, Zunino, Romero, Miller, etc. But those guys are not considered high upside players. For the most part the ceiling for these guys is "every day major leaguer", or "above average at their position" which is not bad, but is not super great either. Of course, they could outplay those projections, but most objective analysts do not think we have many all star caliber bats if any at all in the minors, and most of them think you need a star bat or two to win championships (the 2010 SF Giants aside).
2. The only ways to acquire the type of hitters you will need to succeed, especially considering the division we play in, is to pay huge money for them, or trade for them.
3. The Mariners, under the current regime have not paid for any top tier free agents and payroll has continued to fall. So, the assumption is that they won't. That eliminates the free agent option in people's minds and only leaves one way to acquire talented bats - trade for them.
4. The Mariners have 3 possible front end starters in the minor leagues, and more young high upside starters coming up behind them, and that is their area of strength from which to trade.
5. Their top hitting prospects are Nick Franklin and Mike Zunino. (I'm going to exceed the character limit again, aren't I?) Their young bats at the major league level have had tough years. Justin Smoak and Dustin Ackley have had disappointing seasons to say the least. They need bats.
6. If you have dirt cheap top end starters that won't be ready to reach their potential for a couple years, around the time that Felix's contract expires and you could get possibly (probably) the best haul of hitters ever traded for a starting pitcher, it makes sense to load up now and let them all grow into a contender together rather than lose Felix for nothing, assuming he doesn't re-sign, and still not have the hitters needed to win a pennant.
7. This is what teams do to get better long term. All of them in this position. It always happens. It doesn't always work, but this is the formula. It is really irritating to people that the Mariners don't seem to be interested in it.
Taking emotions and fan-dom out of the equation, this is a perfectly logical train of thought. By this logic, it makes perfect sense to do the deal. Think about it this way- If Felix was a Minnesota Twin, would you think it would make sense for them to hold on to him, or would you think it would be smarter to trade him for Giancarlo Stanton and others, or Profar and Olt, or some other ridiculous package? You might think the Twins, in their current state would be ridiculous to not do it. That is how people are looking at us. To be honest they have a point. However...
I don't think they should do it. And, it's not because I'm attached to him as a player (although, I am). My reasons are purely baseball related.
Jack Zduriencik (that is the first time I've written his last name without looking it up first) has made multiple statements about why he is not trading Felix, and what the long term plan is for the team. He basically feels that it would be robbing Peter to pay Paul, cutting of your nose to spite your face, and that he can't get fair value for him. In Jack's opinion, you can't win a title without a pitcher like that, and if you don't have one you're always looking for one which is why he gets constant calls about him from other GMs. So, he'd be trading Felix for prospects, and IF the prospects hit projections, then you are banking on Taijuan Walker turning into Felix Hernandez. The Mariners have been a team since the late 70's and have had a total of TWO pitchers of that caliber. Ever. I don't count Moyer. Moyer was good, but not an ace. Walker looks to have the tools of a great pitcher, but the chances that he becomes Felix Hernandez good are pretty slim. So, then where are we? We have bats (maybe) and not enough pitching to win a title? Then you're trying to acquire that front end stopper/ace pitcher and how many of them are there in all of baseball? 10?
I believe the Mariners intend to re-sign him. And if they can't, they'll do a deadline deal. Maybe they can't get a Profar-type player for him at that point, but probably a pretty awesome package of prospects. I think people underestimate what could be had for a hall of fame caliber pitcher at the trading deadline and overestimate the spread between what we could get for him now and what we could get for him then. The Yankees were willing to trade Montero + + for half a year of Cliff Lee. Then traded him for 5 years of Michael Pineda when he was considered a potential ace. What teams trade and what people think they know they will trade is almost always totally different.
The Mariners intend to spend on hitters. Jack has said so publicly, but he believes the team needs the core of dirt cheap talent to improve first. The team has gotten better this year, built on the second youngest roster in baseball, maybe the youngest now that Ichiro is gone, they have improved. I don't believe that the Mariners are just never going to spend as some do, and I don't think it's a super great idea to spend money on 2 WAR players to get us nowhere right now. That's just my opinion, and I know it's not a popular one. When Jack get on the radio and says plainly that they will go out and spend, but that now is not the right time and that you need a core of cheap talented players to win a championship, I believe him. I agree with him. I see it happening with other teams, and I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. He comes out and says they're going after Prince Fielder, but when some dying hyper-rich old man puts a championship on his bucket list and finally forks out the insane contract Boras was waiting for and out bids all other teams that were trying to get him, suddenly they won't spend and don't want to win? I don't get that at all. What is a conservative estimate of what the Mariners offer was? $170, $180 million dollars? Yeah, they obviously don't have the money. Whatever that offer was it was made with Ichiro on the books as well. They want the right players at the right position. They're going to spend, just not shell it out for a bunch of second tier guys that want multi-year contracts because guess what? If you have a bunch of guys making 7 - 10 million/year, THEN you can't spend!!! AND you still SUCK!
If they're going to spend on hitters, then it makes sense to keep Felix. It makes sense to trade one of the big three for a hitter, but not until their value is higher. James Paxton is a known commodity, but he's still a AA pitcher.
Regarding fair value- The argument has been made by Jack ("who's going to give me what I need for him?") and online (PI etc.) that Felix is untradable because in order to get fair value for him you'd need to get Mike Trout, or Bryce Harper or someone of that caliber, and those teams are not going to make that trade. Because 5+ years of minimum contract Mike Trout is more valuable right now than 2 years of 8 figure Felix Hernandez. It's just economics. Jurickson Profar is one of the top prospects in the minors. Is he enough for one of the best pitchers of the last decade? He hasn't even played a major league game yet. What I'm getting at is, when you start trying to think of deals, none of them make sense (and a lot of them, for either team).
Say what you want about Jack Zduriencik, but he's not stupid. He knows better than all of us where we are and what we can do with what we have. If he plans on keeping Felix Hernandez, he's going to go out and get bats. If he wasn't planning on it, he would trade Felix. To me, it's really that simple. Now, it just comes down to when he feels it is the right time to go and get them, who they are, and whether or not they're free agents or acquired via trade. Him keeping Felix gives me hope. It tells me that the plan is to build around him, when the time is right. If he traded Felix, THAT is when I'd start to worry. That would tell me that the Mariners are not planning to spend, and are going the full on Royals/Rays route. A lot of people think that's what we are, and because we haven't spent just to spend, that's where the perception comes from. When Jack comes out and says publicly that they're going to go the Rangers route (build build build, SPEND!), I take it on faith that he means it. If that is the case, by ALL MEANS keep Felix.