2013 Offseason Thread

[clarknova]

I wanted to start a thread for the offseason because so often I drink a ton of coffee and some of you know what happens then... Not enough room in the chat box! Also there are times when I just want to say more than there is room for and this is the subject I'm obsessing about (as per usual).

Where we're at today is at an early juncture in the game we still have a hole... No, a vortex to fill in the outfield. Everyone knows it. The options have begun to dwindle in the eyes of some, but in my opinion it's just that it's becoming more clear what the M's are not going to do. We're not going to sign Josh Hamilton. We're not going to sign Melky Cabrera. We're not going to sign Torii Hunter. Ok, I can totally deal with that. B.J. Upton and Michael Bourne are (very probably) not going to sign here. All accounts point to a three way battle between playoff caliber teams way closer to home for those players. The Phillies, Nats, and Braves are going to drive up the price on those guys and Seattle would have to overpay to get them. I would be shocked and am not totally excited about either player. So, it's starting to become clear that if we're going to get a significant upgrade in the outfield it's going to come from Nick Swisher via a multi-year contract, or a trade will be made and then it's anyone's guess what we'll get and what it will cost in prospects. There are a lot of names being floated out there via specumation (Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Wil Myers, Andre Ethier, etc.) but I think it will be a bit of a surprise. Jack and his team know they can't walk away with nothing. Something will get done, the question is what? (eeek!)

They are doing things that to me look an awful lot like painting a pretty picture for free agents (the fence, the super-jumbo tron). To me it looks less like, "hey fans, we're going to suck again, but more dingers on a giant screen!!" and more like, "Hey free agents, we're a young team on the rise that is investing in making our home field easier for you to be awesome in, and who doesn't like a bigger TV?" - But, that's just me. I see a TON of (understandably) cynical fans who think the previous is the real story. I'm prepared to let the offseason play out before I pass my final judgment on it.

My main concern is what happened last year and I think the public statement about Hamilton is damage control for the Fielder situation from 2011: Everyone reports the M's are in on him and spin it like we're a major player, so the fans get all excited, forget about the risk and just desperately want anything that will make us better- screw the cost! We lose out on the bidding, and the FO and ownership look like they don't want to do what it takes to win. It makes more sense to temper the expectations and say, hey, we're not going to give this dude 7 years, even 6. It's a bad baseball decision for the teams future. Last year I got pretty excited about Prince Fielder... Ok, I was obsessively excited. And when it didn't happen, I was pretty bummed out. I knew it was too much money. I didn't care. They came away from free agency with a goose egg and ended up swinging a trade in January for a bat. If they can't sell Seattle to Swisher, they're going to have to make a trade. Anything short of a major upgrade in hit skill and power in the outfield is going to be a total failure.

Butler... It doesn't look as bad to me fit-wise as it does others, but most people have almost zero faith in his ability to defend at 1st, and consider him to be a DH. I'd think if Butler was brought in, it's goodbye to Smoak. Give Butler 120 (or so) games at 1st and have him DH when Montero Catches with Jaso on the bench. The cost for Butler would be immense. As Cameron said on the radio yesterday, if we're going to make a deal with KC, it makes MUCH more sense to get an outfielder which we need FAR more than a DH/1B... But at the end of the day, we need better hitters. If it means giving up on a pretty good young hitter and trading away a future top end starter to get a potential All Star... We need to do what we have to do to get to the next level.

Just some thoughts... I also thought we needed a new thread. I'll stop babbling now.

[clarknova]

Regarding Justin Upton, Buster Olney just tweeted what Seattle bloggers have been saying since last year: It's not a good fit because our strength in prospect is Arizona's strength - Starting pitching. They want a stud young 3B or SS, and a MLB caliber one, so not Franklin and Seager may not be what they're looking for. I get the impression they've talked about it, and they've talked to Arizona. Jason Churchill has serious doubts about him. I asked him why and he pointed to his home/road splits. It's ugly, and he plays in a hitters park. Far better than Safeco will become (more of a neutral park).

[georgmi]

I think (and this is pure speculation) one of the things a FA wants is to play in front of a big, supportive crowd. So the dwindling attendance in Safeco is probably another reason to avoid the Mariners. You can't credibly say, "come to Seattle, help us win, and the crowds will follow". Yeah, a new jumbotron shows the casual fans that you're looking to make their experience better, but it also shows potential FAs that the organization is addressing the attendance question from multiple angles.

I doubt anybody will sign here solely because the replay screen is now HD instead of SD, but it might nudge them over the edge if they're waffling.

That said, and getting back on the actual topic, if we end up "settling" for Nick Swisher, I will do my best to contain my "disappointment".

[clarknova]

Sounds like Justin Upton (according to Heyman) has Seattle and Toronto on his no trade list, which apparently changes every year. I've read repeatedly that we're on it, no we aren't, yes we are... Due to the fact that it is Seattle and Toronto, I have to think distance is a factor for him... That and being on a good team. For me, as I said - no big deal. He was exciting for me, but at a closer look maybe not. I've had that issue before (Hunter Pence), and in reverse where I look at a player and think, "meh" but then take a closer look and see a potential difference maker (Nick Swisher, Chase Headley).

I was thinking about it this morning and I truly do believe money talks. If you pay enough for a guy, he'll go pretty much anywhere. When the Nationals went out and grabbed Jayson Werth with a 7 year $126 million deal in early December 2010 they had just finished dead last in their division again and almost 30 games out of first. At the time that deal was widely panned as an overpay. Swisher is rumored (emphasize "rumored") to be seeking a similar deal. What would you think of a deal like that for Swisher? He's the same age Werth was when he signed his deal. So, let's pretend that we can convince Nick Swisher to move himself and his wife, actress Joanna Garcia who is expecting their first child to move farther away from her hometown of Tampa Florida than is possible for a huge part of the year (also considering that the M's train in Arizona) and join the Mariners who are, on paper, certainly not the favorites to win an extremely tough division. Would you do 7 years at an average salary of $18/million + the #12 overall pick for Nick Swisher? I'm not saying the issues with convincing him are deal breakers, I'm just saying it looks to me like we'd have to blow away an interested east coast contender to get him. I'd love to have him on the team. He's a solid player who was at least by me, totally underrated. If it's a "no" with Hamilton, Swisher is the best bat on the market, and at the end of the deal might be a better overall value than Hamilton, but that's a steep price. What is the max you would pay Swisher in dollars and years?

[clarknova]

Oh, and so apparently Nick Swisher also just built a gigantic home in Tampa for him and his wife and new baby. Just a side note.

[clarknova]

Pretty sure his wife works in L.A. though... So, whatever. I'm over-thinking this again aren't I? Damn it...

[clarknova]

I know you guys are probly all like, "hey, where's the way too early 2013 draft preview?!", right? Well, not to worry! I want to wait to see if we have to give up our pick first. If we don't have a first round pick, it seems kind of silly to spend a bunch of time trying to speculate as to who the mid-rounders might be. (Yes, I am aware that it's silly to speculate now regardless. I can't seem to help it.)

[georgmi]

I think the farm system's in good enough shape right now that we can afford to give up a non-top-ten pick to get somebody like Swisher. $18 million is about market-value for a 4-win guy, and Swisher brings exactly the kind of positional flexibility we need--if Smoak is OK at first and Guti is healthy, we go with a Saunders-Guti-Swisher outfield and we're in pretty good shape. (If Smoak actually gets good, we're even happier, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.)

If Smoak isn't OK, Swisher moves to first and the Wells/Thames platoon in the OF gives us much the same production as an OK Smoak would have.

If Guti gets hit by a meteorite or develops epilepsy or whatever his next medical adventure is going to be, Saunders moves to center and the Wells/Thames platoon is still not a terrible thing for us.

I hope and trust that Zduriencik is considering the possibility that neither Guti nor Smoak will be able to contribute, but if that happens, we need way more help than just Swisher anyway (and probably Montero gets his 1B transition accelerated).

So, yeah, I would not cringe too much at 7/126, but Swisher seems to have an undeserved reputation as not being all that good, so I bet his actual contract comes in at closer to 5/90-100, and I'd be all over that for a consistent 4-win switch hitter whose natural side is lefty playing in Safeco. (Note that I was convinced Melky's deal would be one year only, so...)

[206HoopsFan]

I think (and this is pure speculation) one of the things a FA wants is to play in front of a big, supportive crowd. So the dwindling attendance in Safeco is probably another reason to avoid the Mariners. You can't credibly say, "come to Seattle, help us win, and the crowds will follow". Yeah, a new jumbotron shows the casual fans that you're looking to make their experience better, but it also shows potential FAs that the organization is addressing the attendance question from multiple angles.

I doubt anybody will sign here solely because the replay screen is now HD instead of SD, but it might nudge them over the edge if they're waffling.

That said, and getting back on the actual topic, if we end up "settling" for Nick Swisher, I will do my best to contain my "disappointment".


Well, the whole attendance thing just comes with winning. Our fans have shown in the past that they'll show up to watch a playoff caliber team. I'm a big enough baseball fan to show up several times a year regardless of whose playing for us, but most fans obviously aren't that way. Anyways, I see the prospect of having a winning team being much more important in terms of attracting FA's rather than what our attendance has been through these years of losing baseball.

[georgmi]

Yes, but you can't attract a premium FA who wants to play in front of a big crowd by saying, "if you come here, we'll win more, and then the crowds will show up"; it delays the payoff too much. However, if you can point to specific improvements you've already made that will attract the fans, then you've done something proactive.

I'm not saying a new jumbotron is going to be the one thing that gets all the FAs clamoring to sign in Seattle, but you have to do something to get the snowball rolling.

[clarknova]

I'm not saying a new jumbotron is going to be the one thing that gets all the FAs clamoring to sign in Seattle, but you have to do something to get the snowball rolling.

Agree. Additionally, the fences coming in. Obviously it's a two prong approach- The team feels the fences will help our hitters (it will) and at least help to attract free agents. Jack has repeatedly mentioned agents for free agent hitters bringing up the fences this off season. Neither is the end all be all, but it matters.

[Igoe4Mariners]

Winter Meetings start up tomorrow. Hoping for some excitement.

[clarknova]

Latest specumation comes from none other than our own Seattle Times beat reporter Geoff Baker! Seriously, it's a rumor. About the Mariners. That HE is reporting 1st (At no time in the blog post does he say "TV Money" which is really weird).

I refuse to post a link to his blog (you know where to find it), and can't believe I actually read one of his posts, but it seems legit and regardless of what I think of his personality he does have close contact with those who would know. He says the M's have had discussions with the Pirates regarding this deal:

Pirates get: Justin Smoak, John Jaso, Hector Noesi

Mariners Get: Garrett Jones, and Joel Hanrahan

As Muscles explains, the benefit for the Pirates is the salary relief. Hanrahan is their closer and is in line to make about $7 million in arb. Garrett Jones is relatively cheap for now, but could get expensive.

As the Pirates are the other team I follow I can objectively tell you that if this deal came to fruition, as a Pirates fan, I'd need to see more. If that was the deal, I don't like it for the Pirates. As a Mariners fan I'm stoked. Jones is a bit like Jaso in that his splits are pretty bad, but he hit 27 homers last season. Hanrahan is a 40 save pitcher. He'd cost a bunch (for a reliever) and that's the price we'd pay to get Jones. the upside is the pop in Jone's bat, his versatility (1B, OF) and our bullpen would be absolutely filthy(er).

One of many conversations I'm sure they've had, but that's my take. What's yours?

[TellItToTheDA]

I'd have to think that that conversation probably grinded to a halt when Pittsburgh decided to committing $17 million to Russell Martin over 2 years. As for the deal itself, I wouldn't mind it. Jones and Hanrahan are upgrades, and you really can't turn your nose up at upgrading your team in any way possible. And to make a move like this, obviously you're going to be in on a free agent to fill the spot opened at catcher or first base, like Mike Napoli.

[clarknova]

Good point about Martin, but it's also possible that the Pirates don't see Jaso as a full time catcher either (which is still weird to me, but whatever). It's funny to see reactions to the idea from both sides online. Both Mariners and Pirates fans mostly hate the idea. At the end of the day (Jackism), I don't see it happening but it could be one of many fall back plans, interesting nonetheless.

[clarknova]

Starting to sound like Boston is close to signing Mike Napoli. I'm all for upgrading where ever possible, but I don't hate the idea of Jaso/3rd Tier catcher not on the roster/Montero emergency back up/DH until Zunino is ready. Jaso showed promise when not platooned, but many "experts" don't think he's an everyday catcher.

Oh, and A-Rod has a hurty hip and will miss part of the year (LOL).

[clarknova]

Napoli to Boston is a done deal pending a physical according to basically everyone. 3 years @ $39/Million. Granted, this is a pretty weak free agent class, but it's just getting weaker. I'm starting to think the offensive upgrade(s) are going to need to come via trade.

[clarknova]

Jon Heyman is reporting the Red Sox are now talking to Nick Swisher, and Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Rangers are talking to both Greinke and Hamilton (neither of which are legitimate possibilities for the M's, but it would suck for them both to end up in the division).

[Igoe4Mariners]

Dropping like flies.

[clarknova]

Kansas City Star Reporter Bob Dutton (No relation to Charles S. Dutton) tweeted that the Orioles and Mariners are showing "strong interest" in Billy (great bat, bad fit) Butler. Retweet credit to DA.

*Update: Dutton subsequently tweets to KC fans that the M's insist they aren't dealing Felix and the O's aren't dealing Bundy. You know, just in case there are Royals fans out there that think Billy Butler for Felix Hernandez is a reasonable exchange.

[georgmi]

Pirates get: Justin Smoak, John Jaso, Hector Noesi

Mariners Get: Garrett Jones, and Joel Hanrahan

Wow, what a terrible deal for the Mariners. Jaso is a better catcher than Garret Jones, and pretty much the only thing we don't need this offseason is bullpen help.

[clarknova]

Wow, what a terrible deal for the Mariners. Jaso is a better catcher than Garret Jones, and pretty much the only thing we don't need this offseason is bullpen help.

And Pirates fans are calling the GM inept and the concept seems universally hated from their end as well. After mulling it for a day, I really don't think this deal happens. And, Jones' splits are as bad as Jasos. Give Jaso a full season and more ABs and he is fully capable of putting up the hitting numbers Jones did. Jaso also had a higher WAR in 2012 (2.7) than Jones (1.9) despite 154 less plate appearances. I've come around.

[clarknova]

What's with all the talk about 1B/DH/C? I know Smoak has been disappointing, but we have a couple of wide open spots in the outfield. I assume they've got their hands in a lot of different things, but it's just odd that the stuff we're hearing about is Napoli, Butler, Jones etc. All three of which would entail giving up on a current player in one way or another. Not that we shouldn't upgrade if possible, just seems strange.

[clarknova]

Per Ken Rosenthal - FA outfielder Angel Pagan is close to re-signing with the Giants. Another one bites the dust.

[Igoe4Mariners]

log jam for the win! Not like we need help in other places...

[clarknova]

Jon Heyman is reporting that the M's have checked in on Ryan Ludwick (hey! an outfielder).

Also reports out there that they have expressed interest in Adam Laroche. They're checking in on every above average (or average) hitter from the sounds of it.

[georgmi]

What's with all the talk about 1B/DH/C?

I know, right? That's why I think Swisher should be Plan A--he's a good outfielder who can play 1B if Smoak falls back off the cliff AND Montero can't pick up the position AND Jaso ends up behind the plate for 140 games. Why would we go get somebody who potentially pushes three of our existing young guys to the curb before we see whether they can make any progress?

[TellItToTheDA]

I'm going to admit, my patience is quite thin this offseason. To see bats coming off the board in quick succession (Cabrera, Upton, Napoli, and now Pagan), and know that our only moves to this point are extending Iwakuma and trading for Andino, is frustrating, when you know this team has to make moves, not only to make a run at a playoff spot, but to inject at least a little excitement into the fanbase. Just make a move Z. Sign Adam LaRoche. Sign Ryan Ludwick. Trade for Billy Butler. For the love of God man, DO SOMETHING.

[clarknova]

Now Jon Morosi is reporting that the M's have checked in on Delmon Young. Yuck. I'm not a fan.

I'm impatient as well and after the last couple off seasons, my fear is that the FO is the Anti-Bavasi and that can be bad as well. Hoarding the young talent and not trusting your talent evaluators enough to know who to trade and who to trade for. It all remains to be seen, but it's kind of the position Dayton Moore finds himself in. Refusing to trade any of his young position players or ask the moon for them when he desperately needs pitching to compete with Detroit. I'll wait to see how it pans out, but if they don't do anything significant to upgrade this offense... I'm not going to be a happy camper in February.

[georgmi]

I look at it a little differently. The fact that we're not snapping up the dregs already (and LaRoche and Ludwick are dregs in my book--limited-upside lateral moves rather than real improvement) suggests that we're still in on guys who could make a real difference. I don't want to see them make a move that doesn't help the team much or at all, just to be perceived as being active. "Just do something" is almost always terrible advice.

If we get to Spring Training and the team isn't significantly better than it is right now, I'm unhappy as well. But there's a lot of offseason left, and we are NEVER going to know what's going on in the M's front office until the guys they're chasing actually sign with someone.

[clarknova]

Like I said, I'll withhold judgment until the off season is over, but to me there are options. When you have the pitching talent in the minors and the capital to take on contracts something simply has to be done. I agree, there is a ton of off season left, so we'll see what they do. I'm with you in that I want a guy that makes a difference, not a guy just to get a guy, but we have the resources to get a guy (or guys) that will make a difference so that is my expectation.

[Igoe4Mariners]

I look at it a little differently. The fact that we're not snapping up the dregs already (and LaRoche and Ludwick are dregs in my book--limited-upside lateral moves rather than real improvement) suggests that we're still in on guys who could make a real difference. I don't want to see them make a move that doesn't help the team much or at all, just to be perceived as being active. "Just do something" is almost always terrible advice.

If we get to Spring Training and the team isn't significantly better than it is right now, I'm unhappy as well. But there's a lot of offseason left, and we are NEVER going to know what's going on in the M's front office until the guys they're chasing actually sign with someone.

I have this approach every offseason as the first few big names fall off the board. Then I always end up being more pissed once the offseason concludes.

Hope this year is different and they give us something to be excited about. I just want to go into the season with a semi-legitimate, experienced 3-5 hitter for the first time in a long time in my legitimate Mariner fanhood.

[clarknova]

Jon Morosi just tweeted that the Mariners would be "open" to a reunion with Mike Morse if Laroche re-signs with Washington. Really? They aren't still hurt about him being a good hitter after he left? That's my favorite so far. Open to a reunion. Of course they would be.

Mike Morse is a good hitter and a terrible defender. Stick him in left. I'd be fine with it.

[Igoe4Mariners]

Morosi tweets the most obviously blatant shit.

[georgmi]

Ahh, you guys are young yet. : )

It's soooo much better where we are now, with admittedly a not-so-good team, but a front office that has a plan that makes sense and is doing their best to execute intelligently on that plan, than where we were in the '80s, when the team was bad, the plan was nonexistent, and there just wasn't any reason to hope for better. Most of the failures in the Zduriencik era so far have been moves that should have been good but fell apart for reasons that couldn't be foreseen. Contrast that with even the Bavasi era, where the successes were moves that should have been bad but fell together for reasons that weren't foreseen.

[Igoe4Mariners]

Ahh, you guys are young yet. : )

It's soooo much better where we are now, with admittedly a not-so-good team, but a front office that has a plan that makes sense and is doing their best to execute intelligently on that plan, than where we were in the '80s, when the team was bad, the plan was nonexistent, and there just wasn't any reason to hope for better. Most of the failures in the Zduriencik era so far have been moves that should have been good but fell apart for reasons that couldn't be foreseen. Contrast that with even the Bavasi era, where the successes were moves that should have been bad but fell together for reasons that weren't foreseen.

I hear ya. I was pumped about the Figgins signing when it went down. Never could have imagined how bad it got. Wonder if that's making Z hesitant?

[clarknova]

Morosi tweets the most obviously blatant shit.

Yeah, he's a dip shit.

Regarding the re-building- I'm not ready to write these guys off yet, by any means. The Bavasi years were so painful for me. I started watching in 93, their first winning season ever. Then there was something to be excited about. I think something that fans that started following after 2002 are missing more than the losing of the 80's is the winning of the mid 90's to early 2000's. It was SO freaking awesome. I want all Mariners fans to experience that. It's freaking magical.

[clarknova]

Morosi just tweeted this:

"Sources: Mariners and Royals have had recent talks on Billy Butler."

Seriously.

That was just for comedic value.

[Igoe4Mariners]

Morosi just tweeted this:

"Sources: Mariners and Royals have had recent talks on Billy Butler."

Seriously.

That was just for comedic value.

Starting to think he just tweets about the Mariners to piss the fan base off.

[georgmi]

This just in: Zduriencik and Moore have had recent talks on where to find a decent cup of coffee in Nashville. I mean, seriously, haven't these country-music hicks ever heard of a fuckin' Starbucks?

Edit to add: Now, before you kids get all het up, remember that Zduriencik only moved here a from the Midwest a couple years ago, and Dayton Moore lives in Kansas City. You got to give them time to develop a taste for better coffee than what Starbucks has. ; )

[Igoe4Mariners]

Mariners have met with Josh Hamilton, according to our best friend, Jon Morosi.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/josh-hamilton-meets-with-seattle-mariners-texas-rangers-still-in-mix-120312

[clarknova]

...and with the Diamondbacks re: Justin Upton -

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/12/04/mariners-diamondbacks-discuss-justin-upton/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Hmmmmm. HMMMMMMMMM! Fun with speculation! They're meeting with everyone!

[TellItToTheDA]

Mike Salk at 710 says to watch out for Jason Bay as a low-risk signing, that has a good chance of happening.

[Igoe4Mariners]

Let's just sign Hamilton, Upton and Bay. :D

[clarknova]

I think the Hamilton thing is overblown. He showed up at the Winter Meetings in person to meet with teams. He's getting low ball offers because he's a fragile junkie (with an all world skill set). It sounds like he met with the Mariners on Sunday, not yesterday. Jack did another interview Monday and basically said he felt bad about the way things went with Prince Fielder in that he came out early and said they were going for him so he wanted to temper expectations and has repeatedly said it's a long shot because they want so much more than the Mariners are willing to do. He has repeatedly said "probably not", but it comes out that they had a conversation and suddenly everyone is waiting for this impending signing. I know that most of what GMs say is posturing, but all things considered I'd be totally shocked if Hamilton signs with Seattle. I'm not expecting it and won't be disappointed if it doesn't happen because it's so unrealistic for this team and this front office. I mean, it's possible. Just improbable.

[clarknova]

Sounds like the Bay signing is imminent per Brock & Salk who first tweeted that it might be close. I'm hoping for a non-roster invite? He worries me as any kind of solution. He can't be relied on for the power we need in the OF.

Edit: Words were "pretty close". He'll be cheap...

[clarknova]

I think the Hamilton thing is overblown. He showed up at the Winter Meetings in person to meet with teams. He's getting low ball offers because he's a fragile junkie (with an all world skill set). It sounds like he met with the Mariners on Sunday, not yesterday. Jack did another interview Monday and basically said he felt bad about the way things went with Prince Fielder in that he came out early and said they were going for him so he wanted to temper expectations and has repeatedly said it's a long shot because they want so much more than the Mariners are willing to do. He has repeatedly said "probably not", but it comes out that they had a conversation and suddenly everyone is waiting for this impending signing. I know that most of what GMs say is posturing, but all things considered I'd be totally shocked if Hamilton signs with Seattle. I'm not expecting it and won't be disappointed if it doesn't happen because it's so unrealistic for this team and this front office. I mean, it's possible. Just improbable.

Some young aspiring sports reporter that is at (EDIT: He's not there, his "buddies" are) the Winter Meetings just tweeted that he's hearing on the lobby floor that the Mariners have offered Josh Hamilton a 5 year contract. The number he put out there is $120 million. This is as far as you can get away from a legit rumor, but there you go. Wow. Props again to DA for the retweet.

Update: Someone else there is now tweeting that the M's did offer 5 and are now considering 6 years. Wha?!

[clarknova]

ken Rosenthal just tweeted that Hamilton is making progress with the Rangers on a possible 4 year deal. SO, whatever. I'm done entertaining this until something substantive happens or is reported.

[georgmi]

We'd need ~25 WAR out of Hamilton over those five years, assuming no significant $/WAR inflation on the FA market, which would make that a risky but potentially decent investment for the club if Hamilton stays healthy.

That said, the TV contracts coming down these days mean the "no inflation" assumption is probably not realistic, so there's a good possibility (still assuming health) that this turns out to be a club-friendly contract by the end of it.

I'd rather have Swisher, but I wouldn't dislike this deal if it went through. A sixth year makes me more uncomfortable.

Dare I hope we get both Hamilton and Swisher? Pleasepleaseplease...

[Igoe4Mariners]

5 or 6 years is too much for a 31-year old junky with a history of injuries, but hey, we all know we will have to overpay to get the job done.

As for Bay, as long as we aren't counting on him to come in and be a full time outfielder and hit in the middle of the lineup, I'm all for it.

[georgmi]

I'm done entertaining this until something substantive happens or is reported.

Suuuurrre you are. : )

But if Hamilton's talking with the Rangers about four years, the M's offering five makes some sense.

[clarknova]

Suuuurrre you are. : ) Ha ha, whatever. :)

Funny tid bit of the day: It was reported that the Pirates talks with the Mariners involved them offering Garrett Jones for... Taijuan Walker. I hope Jack said, "No, but we'll trade you John Jaso for Gerrit Cole".

[georgmi]

My guess is that Zduriencik's response was, "I may be bald, but that doesn't mean my name is Bavasi."

[Igoe4Mariners]

As much as I like Bourn's skill set, it's not the move I want to see this team spend the big bucks on. We need a LEGITIMATE, middle of the order stick that strikes at least some fear in opposing pitchers. We had a great leadoff hitter for the better part of a decade and it got us nowhere...

[Igoe4Mariners]

Bay signing nearly official.

https://twitter.com/MartinoNYDN/status/276403749239529474

[clarknova]

Waiting to see terms before reacting. Love it if it's an NRI... If not, not so much.

I'm not assuming this is the only move they're going to make like half of twitter. This probability is very low that this move increases our chances of winning more games and they know that. This is a "see if he can regain some of the thump from a couple years ago" move. Hopefully.

[clarknova]

Heyman is reporting it's a major league deal, and it's for "7 figures". No sir, I don't like it.

[clarknova]

Ok, so now Greg Johns is reporting it's not a 7 figure deal. I guess we'll see. Not a huge impact either way, so not a big hairy deal. Just sort of feel like we already have players with his skill set. IF he can regain some of his power, it's a good deal. If not, I guess they'll probably drop him so no harm done.

[Igoe4Mariners]

Ok, so now Greg Johns is reporting it's not a 7 figure deal. I guess we'll see. Not a huge impact either way, so not a big hairy deal. Just sort of feel like we already have players with his skill set. IF he can regain some of his power, it's a good deal. If not, I guess they'll probably drop him so no harm done.

Right. It's pretty much an older Casper Wells, but whatevs.

[georgmi]

They're ratcheting back the "seven figures" statement, hopefully to much closer to the league minimum. At that level, an invite to ST to see if he really does have anything left in the tank would be a good think, unless Wedge falls in love with him on the rebound from Olivo.

[clarknova]

I'm guessing the 7 figures can be reached via contract incentives, which would be fine by me.

[Igoe4Mariners]

Now Baker is saying the deal is still just close, not yet signed.

[georgmi]

Man, are we desperate for news or what? :)

[Igoe4Mariners]

Man, are we desperate for news or what? :)

YES!!!

10 char

[georgmi]

Also, I think I've posted more this week to this thread than I did all season. Does that say more about me, or about the season?

[Igoe4Mariners]

Also, I think I've posted more this week to this thread than I did all season. Does that say more about me, or about the season?

The season. No one gives a crap about the regular season if you're a Mariner fan. It's all about the offseason and false hope!

[clarknova]

Thanks Baker. This new Hamilton specumation is going to drive me to drink. In case you haven't heard (or been refreshing twitter until your pointer finger smashed your left mouse button, like some people) the basic story is there was a giant 4 team trade that the Mariners were mentioned as being a hitch in. They were in the trade and would have received something like Derek Holland back while giving up prospects. This would have allowed Texas to receive Justin Upton and some other team would give the D-Backs the legit shortstop they desire for Upton. The story was that the M's were holding up the deal and the speculation was that they weren't keen on helping a division rival obtain Upton so that they could end up with Derek Holland and then they'd sign Greinke. Holland is pretty good (putting aside the 21-8 game last season where we freaking smashed him). So the speculation at that point was that the Rangers would not be able to sign both Greinke, absorb Upton's fair but 8 digit per season contract, AND sign Hamilton. Leaving Hamilton to the Mariners. That was the wild speculation from last night.

This morning Baker comes out and says that the Mariners are "very close" to acquiring Hamilton shortly after Greinke signs with Texas as Texas has been told by Hamilton's agent that they will have the opportunity to match any offer.

Multiple conversations with Chuck Armstrong subsequently deny that they are close and that any contract or parameters have even been discussed with Hamilton.

So, you know... Sigh. Sounds like a bunch of smoke. I freaked out over Fielder last year. I'll get excited when a deal is announced.

[Igoe4Mariners]

That was the first time I've almost jizzed my pants reading a Baker article.

[clarknova]

So yeah, more of the same this morning. The buzz is that they're in on Hamilton, but M's officials seem dumbfounded at the idea and are in total denial spin mode. It's to the point that I can safely say that nobody has any idea what is actually going on or what the M's are thinking (other than they have checked in on every available or semi-available hitter).

The newest slight buzz (I'll call it the one wine cooler buzz of the morning) is the mention of Nick Franklin being of interest to Arizona. Speculation was that he was too far from the majors for them to have any real interest as they wanted a legit major league shortstop or third baseman in any Upton deal, but I've seen his name out there a couple times this morning. Could be nothing. Probably is, but there it is.

[georgmi]

When Greinke and Hamilton go, all the rest of the dominoes will start to fall.

[clarknova]

Per Ken Rosenthal:


Sources: #Mariners have discussed three-year deals with Hamilton in range of $20M to $25M per season.

[georgmi]

I can't believe Hamilton's even considering a three-year deal. The market must be a lot worse than we thought.

Maybe we can get both Swisher and Hamilton...

[clarknova]

That would be nuts. I'd settle for one. I've thought about it, and if the Rangers simply aren't willing to put $20-$25 million on the table for him, and he has to look elsewhere, it's hard for me to imagine no other team being willing to cough up a three year deal. We'd probably have to to 4, or maybe a couple of vesting options based on plate appearances to make it happen. 3 years seems like a ridiculous steal to me, or an agent leaking info to reporters to try and get other teams involved. That said, if this did work out, that would be pretty awesome indeed.

[Igoe4Mariners]

A three-year deal? I'd lose it.

I'd settle for 4 or 5 easily myself.

[clarknova]

From Jason Churchill:


Source from rival team thinks Seattle is probably closer on a trade than signing a big name FA. If true, interesting.

When asked if it was for a big name he replied:


Something significant.

So there's something (almost nothing) for you.

[Igoe4Mariners]

LOL

Awesome.

[clarknova]

Latest rumor has the Dodgers close to signing Greinke. If that happens, it's almost a guarantee that Hamilton goes back to Texas. I'm pretty sure he ends up there regardless.

The other thing I'm thinking is that all of this "4 way Upton trade Hamilton's close to signing with Seattle" crap is just that. Crap. I still think it's more than a long shot that Hamilton signs here. I'm sensing another pitching for hitting trade and a 2nd tier signing. Just a gut feeling.

[clarknova]

However, the good news is that it will get the ball rolling. Once Greinke is off the table things should start to take shape. I'd guess Hamilton re-ups with Texas after taking his short term offers from other teams to them. I still think Texas gets Justin Upton, which I'm not terribly upset about. The Mariners will need to look to Swisher if they want a decent power upgrade in free agency or make a trade. I'm totally fine with either depending on the price. Things should hopefully get interesting soon...

[clarknova]

Initial rumor on the Dodgers/Greinke contract is 6 years... $145 million. Dude. That's nuts if true.

[georgmi]

I thought the new TV revenues were supposed to be driving contracts *up*? Even if you discount Greinke's future value because of his head issues, 6/145 looks outstandingly team-friendly for a premiere pitcher through his age 35 season.

ETA: Looks like I did my math wrong. 6/145 is paying for about 5.3 WAR/year. Probably an overpay, but not a huge one; Greinke's probably going to be in the 4-5 WAR/year range.

[clarknova]

Really? Man, things are just going to get crazy then. Woe be the teams without "TV money", or small market teams with much less. The rich are just going to get richer. $24million a year for 6 years on a team that already has Kershaw, Beckett, Gonzalez, Kemp, Crawford and Etheir... The Dodgers are officially the new Yankees. That contract is outstandingly team friendly to about 5 teams.

[clarknova]

Dodgers payroll will now top $200 million next year pretty much any way the contract is structured per Jayson Stark.

[Igoe4Mariners]

Initial rumor on the Dodgers/Greinke contract is 6 years... $145 million. Dude. That's nuts if true.

That's just dumb as hell. Can you imagine what Felix would get on the open market?

[clarknova]

Can you imagine what Felix would get on the open market?

Well, if Greinke is worth 6/$145 million, I'd have to think Felix would get something like 8/$200 million. Hopefully he gets it from Seattle.

[clarknova]

Sounds like something is brewing between the Royals and Rays. Something involving James Shields. If so, I had to think Wil Myers is probably a Tampa Bay Ray....

Whoop, there it is... Myers + prospects to Tampa for Shields and Wade Davis per Ken Rosenthal.

[clarknova]

Love that deal for Tampa Bay. Myers was near the top of my list of available young bats. I guess they wanted more than Jason Vargas and some youngsters... Oh well.

[Igoe4Mariners]

Shields is good, but not the type of elite player the Royals should have gotten for him.

[clarknova]

It's not just that, it's that Shields' contract is up after this season. Top 5 prospect for a 1 year rental... Need to see what the rest of this deal is. It's being reported that there is more involved, but all I'm seeing is Davis, Shields from Tampa and Myers, Arteaga from KC... Has to be more coming from Tampa... Right?

[clarknova]

Sorry, my bad. Two more years for Shields. Still.. That takes balls.

[clarknova]

It would be like the Mariners trading Taijuan Walker and other prospects for Curtis Granderson and Phil Hughes. Actually, it's very much like the Adam Jones trade, now that I think of it. Small window, mortgaging the future to win now..

[clarknova]

confirmed, its shields, davis & ptbnl for myers, odorizzi, montgomery and leonard. #rays #royals

That's from Jon Heyman. Freaking yuck! That's a horrible deal for KC.

[Igoe4Mariners]

And that's why the Royals suck.

(This is probably what teams say about us too, however).

[georgmi]

Holy Adam Jones for Erik Bedard, Batman!

[JosephC]

Kansas City never fails to amaze me.

[Igoe4Mariners]

Anybody else ready to wake up one morning and see that Hamilton signed with the M's? I'm bored.

[JosephC]

Anybody else ready to wake up one morning and see that Hamilton signed with the Rangers? I'm bored.

Fixed your post...

[clarknova]

Well, some things happened or are happening... or are rumored to maybe happen (or not):

Kevin Youkilis is a Yankee. So, they're old.

There is some three way trade being worked out between the Reds, Indians, and D-Backs that would supposedly get Arizona the young stud shortstop they're after (Didi Gregorius) in exchange for pitching. If they get their shortstop, I suppose there's less of a need for them to trade Upton, which would create much more of a need for Texas to re-sign Hamilton. So, you can pretty much write that one off. Churchill is saying that basically Swisher doesn't want to play in Seattle, and they don't really like him all that much either. Which is weird. Because he's good. So, maybe that's not true. OR! Maybe only one of them is true. Ummm. Oh! Choo is supposedly going to the Reds in which case they would have 3 corner outfielders (Ludwick, Choo, Bruce) and are rumored to be a strong contender to get Swisher as well. Even though Choo has tried to be a centerfielder before and sucked kinda bad (back when he was a Mariner), it's ok because Morosi says he's more "confident" now... Which... What?

So... It looks like we're just going to have to trade for Giancarlo Stanton! What other options are there? Bourn and Cody Ross? I'm on board with Bourn as long as there's a power hitter to go with him.

[Igoe4Mariners]

Sounds like something isn't right with the Naps signing/physical in Boston

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/boston-red-sox-mike-napoli-free-agent-deal-may-be-in-jeopardy-121112

[georgmi]

Heh. Remember when the Orioles didn't sign Arthur Rhodes because he failed his physical, then the Mariners signed him and he was awesome? I do.

(Note that I'm not saying I think Napoli would come to the Mariners and be awesome if the BoSox deal fell through. I still don't think there's a match there.)

[Igoe4Mariners]

Mariners interested in Brennan Boesch.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/mlb-rumors/21379281/report-mariners-discuss-brennan-boesch-trade-with-tigers

Let's say we pull this trade off...not sure how we'd have room for another FA OF then with Guti, Saunders, Bay, Boesch, Carp, Thames and Wells

[Igoe4Mariners]

Angels in serious negotiations with Hamilton. Great.

Just what we need. Hamilton and Pujols back to back.

[flyboywhit]

And it is now official. Hamilton is off to L.A. My faith in the Mariners front office is completely gone. Sad but this is the same ownership that has been quoted as saying they have no desire to win, they just want to bring in money from the fans. Sad thing is, that they can't even do that. A jumbotron screen is not going to bring people to that stadium. Other than fans for the opposing teams.

[georgmi]

Five years, $125M. If the Mariners had signed Hamilton to that, I'd've accepted it, but it wouldn't have made me very happy. Add the premium it would have taken to get him to switch from the Angels (a team that has won some games recently) to the Mariners, and this is Prince Fielder all over again--we are better off because we *didn't* go there.

[Igoe4Mariners]

F life. The Mariners won't win shit for the next 5 years.

[clarknova]

It was hard not to get excited about Hamilton because I knew the Mariners were trying to get him. Knowing that, It made it impossible not to keep looking for news of his possible impending signing. There were a lot of things I told myself that made it make sense to me that it might happen. I did what I said I wasn't going to do after the Prince Fielder fiasco. Maybe someday I'll learn.

I was disappointed today, but not not because I assumed Hamilton was going to be a Mariner (the logic portion of my brain was forcing me to accept that it was a far fetched maybe at best)... but because he's a god damn Angel. It was worse to me than him re-signing with Texas. Last off season, the worst day wasn't Fielder signing with Detroit. I knew he wasn't coming to Seattle around this time last year. It was the day I left twitter open all night on my computer. I sat down in the morning with my coffee, turned my monitor on and saw there were over 900 new tweets on a "mariners" twitter search... I was flooded with anxiety. What had happened?!!?! It must have been awesome because it was Mariners related and the 900 tweets were from the middle of the freaking night! I refreshed the page... It was all about how Pujols had signed with Anaheim and it was just a bunch of Mariners fans writing a collective suicide pact. Talk about a punch in the gut.

YES. I. KNOW. This doesn't mean Anaheim is going to win the World Series. They didn't make the playoffs last year. etc. etc. I'm not so much bummed out about the Mariners process, because to beat that deal and draw Hamilton away from Anaheim they would have had to give him 6 years at $150. That's not a great deal for us because we don't have the capital for that to make any sense long term. I'm bummed out because Texas and Anaheim are both in our division, and I fucking hate those guys. If Hamilton had signed with Philadelphia, or freaking Detroit even... Whatever. I hate watching those teams get better. Hate it. That's why I'm burned up. Not because the Mariners can't close the deal, or don't care about winning, or some other stupid bummer ideal.


I'm glad we still have the young core in tact and that we haven't made any stupid trades. I really hope for a decent offensive upgrade and another step forward this year and am unbelievably still optimistic. I just hate the stupid fucking Angels you guys!

[Igoe4Mariners]

Well said. It makes it tough to be a baseball fan when this shit happens. An absolute punch to the gut (more like the nuts)

[georgmi]

Divish is saying (http://blog.thenewstribune.com/mariners/2012/12/14/a-few-notes-and-reaction-to-the-josh-hamilton-signing/) the Mariners' offer was 4/100, with vesting options (at 400-450 at-bats) for years 5 and 6 at $25M/year.

That seems like a pretty aggressive attempt on the Mariners' part, and I'd even suggest that the M's offer could be looked at as better than the Angels' deal from a purely financial standpoint.

I think we have to look at this as a statement by Hamilton on the relative attractiveness of the Angels organization vs. the Mariners, and by extension the desire of high-end free agents to win now vs. waiting a couple of years. (People keep saying travel is an issue as well, but when travel involves first-class flights on luxury charter jets, I don't really buy it that much.)

If this is the case, then clearly what the organization needs to do in order to become more attractive to high-end FAs is start winning some more, and it looks like the only way we're going to be able to accomplish that is to develop the farm, bring up the kids as they're ready, and build a cheap, effective core. And *not* trade away significant future value in prospects to acquire short-term wasting assets. In other words, don't make moves just to "make a splash", because a splash doesn't win ball games, and not winning ball games scares away the FAs.