Mariners trade Jason Vargas for Kendrys Morales

[clarknova]

Wow. This shakes things up a bit. Both will be free agents after the coming season. I like the deal, but the roster ramifications with be interesting...

YOU GUYS! SOMETHING HAPPENED!! A HITTER!

Just waiting for the broken leg home run celebration comments to start...

[Igoe4Mariners]

Fill one hole, open another.

[georgmi]

Now we have a logjam at 1B/DH. Who else thinks a trade involving Smoak or Montero for an OF or SP is coming?

[clarknova]

Maybe, but in terms of need this is a great move for the Mariners. Morales, when healthy and not breaking his leg jumping on home plate can be a dangerous power hitter. We get 30 homer power without losing the #12 pick, and now can look at free agent starting pitchers to replace Vargas. We need Morales more than Vargas.

[clarknova]

Who else thinks a trade involving Smoak or Montero for an OF or SP is coming?

Yeah, and I don't think it will be Montero. One thought I had though, was that I think Smoak might have an option left... We'll see!

[clarknova]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qGv9AvVZqc

[georgmi]

I think Montero has options as well, but I don't think there's room on the Rainiers for both of them.

[JosephC]

I really hate this move. A good lefty is far more valuable than a plump Morales. Vargas was a decent #2 or good #3, you don't just go trade that away. I wanted him signed an extension. Meh, not big on Kendrys.

[JosephC]

Edit: I'm confused. When does Morales become a free agent?

[Igoe4Mariners]

Edit: I'm confused. When does Morales become a free agent?

After this season.

[TellItToTheDA]

I really hate this move. A good lefty is far more valuable than a plump Morales. Vargas was a decent #2 or good #3, you don't just go trade that away. I wanted him signed an extension. Meh, not big on Kendrys.

A decent #3 before the fences were moved in, yes. But Vargas was a classic case of a pitcher who greatly benefitted from the friendly confines of Safeco Field. When we take a look at the splits, we see a starter with a higher average (.266 on the road vs. .219 at home), a higher HR/9 (1.97 vs. 0.82), a higher WHIP (1.31 vs. 1.02), a lower K/BB (2.18 vs. 3.14), and a MUCH higher FIP (5.59 vs. 3.61) on the road in 2012 compared to at home, and this was no abberation. So what we had in Jason Vargas was a top-end pitcher in half of his starts, and what amounts to Ervin Santana in his other half. More importantly, he was an innings eater. But all of this was subject to change in 2013 with the changing dimensions. If more of those flyballs were going to fly into the bleachers, and that benefit that came with pitching in Seattle was diminished, his value was never going to be higher (not to mention he'd end up pitching fewer innings by virtue of getting pulled sooner as he allows more runs). So that brings us to what we received.

And what a bounty in Kendrys Morales! First off, what a fluky injury that kept him sidelined in 2010 and 2011 in the first place (remember, we all saw it live). In his first full year in 2009, he raked. 34 homers, 108 RBIs, and 5th in AL MVP voting. Then in his first full season back this year, a respectable .273 with 22 homers and 73 RBIs. I say respectable, but he would have lead the Mariners in the first two categories (bless you Kyle Seager for your 86 RBIs). What's important to note here is that Angel Stadium isn't far behind Safeco in terms it's pitcher friendliness (I'm probably butchering the correct grammatical usage of friendliness, but whatever), so while Vargas was the right pitcher for the Angels to bring in, Morales is a hitter whose numbers shouldn't suffer by playing in Seattle.

So the offense improves, and the starting pitching takes a hit. In terms of wins/losses in 2013, it's a lateral move. But if we're under the assumption that Vargas would have struggled more at home next season, it's at least receiving the maximum return for a bat that, if he pans out, could theoretically be extended (a la Brendan Ryan & Hisashi Iwakuma) as he plays out the final year of his contract. Now here's the kicker (and what may actually be the most important cog in a deal like this). While Vargas is projected to make $7.4 million next year, Morales is only slated to make $4.8. That $2.5 million could perhaps be tossed at the likes of a Michael Bourn. Even the idea that a free agent wouldn't have to necessarily carry the entire offense on his back could be a plus.

Now bringing in Morales is the kind of move that takes the Mariners offseason from, "Come on guys," to, "Now that's a start." To think, they picked up this bat and have more money to spend. MORE! Say it with me now, more money to spend! And it would be reasonable to expect we use that payroll on an outfielder, whether that be Bourn, or trading for Andre Eithier in a salary dump, or Delmon Young, etc. From that, there should be enough money left to pursue another starter, even though that market has thinned. Assuming both Edwin Jackson & Carlos Villanueva are off the market, remaining options include Shaun Marcum and Francisco Liriano, before you start doing what amounts to buying lottery tickets that you desparately hope pan out in Jair Jurrjens, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Rich Harden, Chien-Ming Wang, & Carl Pavano.

Basically, I love the move, I can't imagine that this isn't the precursor to more, and I still am of the belief that it's easier for this team to bring in a back of the rotation starter that can pitch to the park (even after the dimensions have changed), rather than a 25-30 home run guy. Jack, I don't know how you do it. I get to my breaking point with the inactivity, and then you pull off a deal like this to bring me right back in. Bravo.

[JosephC]

You have very valid points TITTDA, and not much that I can argue with. But let me expand where I am coming from:
I was a huge Vargas fan. Every time he was on the mound, I felt like we had a good chance to win. I also think he would have signed here long term had we pursued it. Yes, frankly I think he liked the city. Instead, we got a power bat for 1 year (you can call it a "rental") who makes Miguel Olivo look like a cheetah. I also look at this as another front office "cop out". "Look guy's, we went and got the bat you asked for!"
Bull crap! This is no excuse to drop payroll yet again. No more excuses! If there is indeed more to come, and we make this lineup start looking deadly, then maybe I can change my tune. I like Morales, but I don't like Morales as much as I like Vargas. To think this will bring more fans in the door is a joke.

Until you put some cash into this team, screw you, front office.

[TellItToTheDA]

You have very valid points TITTDA, and not much that I can argue with. But let me expand where I am coming from:
I was a huge Vargas fan. Every time he was on the mound, I felt like we had a good chance to win. I also think he would have signed here long term had we pursued it. Yes, frankly I think he liked the city. Instead, we got a power bat for 1 year (you can call it a "rental") who makes Miguel Olivo look like a cheetah. I also look at this as another front office "cop out". "Look guy's, we went and got the bat you asked for!"
Bull crap! This is no excuse to drop payroll yet again. No more excuses! If there is indeed more to come, and we make this lineup start looking deadly, then maybe I can change my tune. I like Morales, but I don't like Morales as much as I like Vargas. To think this will bring more fans in the door is a joke.

Until you put some cash into this team, screw you, front office.

But that's the problem, extending him would have been a giant mistake because of the changes we made to the park. He was not going to be the pitcher he was, and there was no way around it. If he likes the city and the team, great, but that's absolutely irrelevant if his ERA is nearing 5. And as far as calling Morales a rental? If Jack Z has shown us anything in his time here, it's that if he brings you in, and you're successful, he'll get you a new deal (Gutierrez, Ryan, Iwakuma, in particular). Earlier in his stint here, he's also flipped these players, but I doubt he's in a position where he can continue to trade for prospects, with his job now clearly on the line. I may be impatient, but I'm confident enough after this move to say that if this team doesn't spend the $25 million or so it has available, whether it's on Michael Bourn, Delmon Young, Cody Ross, Shaun Marcum, Francisco Liriano in free agency, capitalizing on another team's surplus, like the Tigers' Rick Porcello, or the Dodgers' Chris Capuano, or allowing another team to dump salary, with the Cubs' Alfonso Soriano, or Dodgers' Andre Ethier, I will eat my hat.

[clarknova]

I dig this move for all of the above stated reasons in the short term but also, there are some long term implications that make this trade very appealing. I'm about to babble... I can feel lt.

One thing I would like to address is the issue of value and wins. I can see the point that ok, you're adding Morales but you're taking away your #2 pitcher. That's not a ridiculous point at all. The value added right now, straight across is not extremely more than the value lost. However, consider that Jason Vargas is going to a team that has a legit ace (Weaver) and a true #2 (Wilson) and will likely slot in somewhere near the back end of the rotation. He's a #2 pitcher on the Mariners in 2012 because he played half of his games at Safeco and the rest of the rotation was Beavan, Iwakuma (at the end of the year), Noesi, and Millwood. I'm not suggesting that Jason Vargas isn't a decent pitcher, I'm just suggesting that ALL Jason Vargas is is a decent pitcher. I guess my point is that we needed a bat, we still need bats, but that Jason Vargas is replaceable and it probably isn't going to cost a ton to replace him.

The other issue that ties into this is contract. I really wish people paid more attention to the details. I'm reading all these tweets... I know I should just ignore it, but when people freak out about losing Jason Vargas and don't realize that he's going into the last year of team control and is set to make around $8 million a year in arb dollars... It matters. This is clearly a situation where the team felt that he was probably an asset that can be replaced and that we have some young arms that will be ready to slot in at the end of next season. Paxton or Hultzen could be ready to go by 2014 or sooner. After next season if they want to keep Vargas, they'd have to offer him a multi-year contract. And, at how much? Chris Capuano, who is a better pitcher than Vargas signed a two year deal for $10 million with a mutual option in 2011. Carlos Villanueva just signed a deal with the Cubs for two years at $10 million. The Mariners, as DA had us all chant together above, have more money to spend because of the difference in dollars. $2.5 Million or so? There are many options out there. They will make a move to get a replacement in. I am not in fear that Hector Noesi breaks camp with this team as a starter. I think Erasmo Ramirez does. I think it'll go 1. Felix 2. Iwakuma 3. Someone not on the team yet 4. Ramirez 5. Someone not on the team yet/Beavan. Not to mention the fact that this team will possibly have a top 3 bullpen in baseball in 2013. As constructed, that bullpen is probably going to be one of the best in the game.

If the Mariners kept Vargas, they would be faced with the issue of what to do with him at the trading deadline. If they didn't want to keep him and continue paying him like a true #2 pitcher and we'll never really know how the fences would have affected him over a full season, they would try to deal him in July. I saw a post from Dave Cameron recently that he had heard from several teams that were actively seeking starting pitching during last year's deadline (when we all thought/worried Vargas was a goner) that they wouldn't even pick up Vargas if he was released on waivers. More than one team. His trade value was not good and with less team control and costing more, I can't imagine it would be better this July. Jack got offers for him last summer, but stated clearly that he didn't want to just "give guys away". The offers sucked. Morales is also in his last year of team control and is a Scott Boras client. But, if he's as good as he was last year in what was basically a rehab year, he's MUCH more valuable at the trading deadline and depending on how good he is we would receive players and draft pick compensation. It just makes so much sense.

I get the feeling that some Mariners fans are disappointed because it wasn't a steal, and actually seemed pretty fair on the surface. For the record, I've seen a lot of the Angels fans reaction. Most fans are not pleased, don't like Vargas all that much and point at his road ERA. He'll be fine. He'll be Vargas. He'll probably be close to the top of the game in homers allowed, but when he's on- he'll be good and pitch deep into games. It's a win-win.*

Here's the biggest issue of them all though - If Kendrys Morales is only as good as he was in his first year back from injury (last year), he'll be better and more productive than ANY Seattle Mariner was in 2012 at the plate. Unless you count RBIs, in which case Seager has him beat... Because it's controllable how many players you have on base in front of you when you're hitting... Anyway, he's our best hitter right now. If some guys take a step forward (Montero), or turn around and take the step forward they took two years ago and then decided to take that foot back and step in the bucket and put that foot in... Crap... I'm lost. I'm trying to say if Ackley doesn't suck and Seager and Saunders hang around or get better we are better and Jack is NOT DONE. If you think that the Mariners believe that they are good to go as is, you're trying to be bummed out. You're actively ignoring factual reality on purpose and I am beyond trying to reason with you.

If we get a solid lefty to replace Vargas and get some decent thump in the outfield... This season could be fun. I'm looking forward to the next move, and I'm looking forward to this season. Morales is going to hit 20 - 30 bombs this year batting clean up for the M's and it's going to rule.

Apparently he's lost 20 pounds. I would still pay a lot to see him and Montero in a foot race, even after Montero's "running school" that he's apparently going to.

*That said, I hope he fucking chokes and gives up 50 homers. You're an Angel now. You're the enemy.

[clarknova]

Until you put some cash into this team, screw you, front office.

Side note. Have you heard the interview with Jack Z on the Mitch In the Morning show from this morning? Here's a link:

http://blog.thenewstribune.com/mariners/2012/12/20/more-radio-jack-zduriencik-talks-with-mitch-in-the-morning/

I wouldn't say it restored my faith, but it showed me that the front office will spend for the right guy, and they thought they had Hamilton. They almost did.

I was getting close to "jump ship" depending on this offseason. This Morales deal does not solve all the problems. I don't think anyone is saying that. I haven't gotten the impression that the team believes this is going to restore the faith of the fans and pack the stadium instantly. It's just a move to improve the line up. A weak line up with gaping offensive holes at shortstop and the outfield.

Sorry, I was writing my dissertation while you guys were posting.

[JosephC]

Well here's to hoping you are both right! I just lost my second favorite player on this team (next to Felix). I will listen to that Clarknova, I haven't heard it yet.


I get the feeling that some Mariners fans are disappointed because it wasn't a steal, and actually seemed pretty fair on the surface. For the record, I've seen a lot of the Angels fans reaction. Most fans are not pleased, don't like Vargas all that much and point at his road ERA. He'll be fine. He'll be Vargas. He'll probably be close to the top of the game in homers allowed, but when he's on- he'll be good and pitch deep into games. It's a win-win.*




I too have seen this. I am a frequent poster, heckler, and viewer at AngelsWin and always read the other sides of trades. Seems the Angels are more disappointed than M's fans.

[JosephC]

Are we still feeling the front office is going to go spend cash?

[clarknova]

I feel like the front office wants to spend cash, but is hoarding it for special players and then getting blown out of the water by billionaire sports fan owners on those players.

There's still time in the offseason and all the impact bats that fit the Mariners are off the market except for Michael Bourn, who is not really the type of hitter this team is desperate for. No knock on him, he's a good leadoff hitter. So, the only other viable option is the trade market. I get the "two to tango" stuff. I really do. If a match isn't there, it just isn't. However, if we don't add an impact bat via trade this will be the third consecutive season that this front office has failed to to so. It's not going to go over well, and for as much as I respect this front office and am grateful for the work they've done in the minor leagues, as a Mariners fan in 2013- I will be disappointed and seriously begin to question their ability to get a star hitter in any way if they won't overpay and won't trade their draft picks. This all remains to be seen, as there is still plenty of time to do something. I'm just saying, if they don't- That's where I'm at. Not, "fire Jack and start over". Just disappointed and I don't think that's being pessimistic. I think it's a pretty reasonable reaction to (especially) the last two offseasons if nothing gets done by spring training. That said, I anticipate something and know they're trying. So, I suppose we'll see. A trade for an impact outfield bat would change my perception of this offseason completely, and no- Michael Morse doesn't count.

[TellItToTheDA]

Are we still feeling the front office is going to go spend cash?

Yes/They damn well better.