Yes or No. Would you be satisfied with Lee for Ramos and Hicks?

[Igoe4Mariners]

Obviously both of them are very high prospects. The only problem is that they are just that. Prospects.

Many people think Hicks is going to be a stud (top 20 prospect in baseball) with serious power and speed down the road. It would be great to have him in our system for sure, but I thought Z was seeking a Major League ready impact bat.

Wilson Ramos is the other top Twins prospect, but he looks to be more of a defensive catcher than an offensive one. Yes, we need a catcher that can actually catch the ball, (Rob Johnson sucks) but I feel pretty good that Adam Moore is going to be successful down the road. Maybe not as good as Ramos, but good enough for the Mariners.

To me, if this deal goes through, yes we are getting the Twins top two prospects, but we can't count on either of them to be an impact bat by next season. Ramos is ready defensively for sure, but probably not offensively (hitting .200 in AAA). Hicks has a chance to be a stud, but is at least 2 to 3 years away.

My guess is Z was looking for an impact bat, but if he can get such a good prospect as Aaron Hicks then he will take the deal immediately. An outfielder with 30-30 potential doesn't come along everyday and he would instantly be our top prospect.

As for the answer to my own question, I would be satisfied with this trade overall. The two top prospects of the Twins, who run one of the best minor league systems in baseball, would be an absolute steal. The only problem is if we want ton try to contend next season, the front office is going to have to pony up and spend some cash during the winter on difference-makers such as Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth, etc. along with a solid number 2 or 3 pitcher to replace Cliff.

[JosephC]

No doubt I'd be satisfied, but I find it hard to believe that the twins would offer such a package for a rental. The twins have a smart GM, so if this is true, I think he knows what he is doing.

Now we're hearing mumbles about B.J. Upton? Decent player but we don't need any more cancer. We've already had enough with Snell and Milton.

[clarknova]

As I have stated repeatedly, I would be shocked to see the Twins pull the trigger on something like that. Pleasantly shocked, but surprised nonetheless. The twins just don't deal prospects for rentals. They are a team built on a great farm system. They are what we should strive to be. For them to suddenly dump that approach would only say to me that they're happy with what they have right now and are willing to give up some future stars for a chance at the title.
That being said, Hicks and Ramos for Lee would be an absolute steal. I was on here talking about Ramos like he's the next Johnny Bench last month, and I think I may have gotten overexcited about him (based more on the fact that I hate Rob Johnson than anything). He's a hacker with +defense and good tools that could be great, but aren't quite there yet. The good thing about him, is that he's probably ready to start playing some late season games in the majors. Hicks is another story. He's a long term project, but from the extensive reading I did last night (until 1:00), he looks to have a floor of say Adam Jones now, and a ceiling of Torii Hunter 3 years ago. That's a pretty solid area to be in, and that's a total opinion on my part, and given, that's what I thought about Jeremy Reed when he came over from Chicago, but he's still a VERY solid prospect.

I have also read today that the Mets might be out of it. Talks have not progressed, so either the M's don't want what the Mets have, or the Mets aren't willing to give up what the M's want for Lee.
Other rumors (and if you've followed any other top trade targets you know these are going to be numerous and somewhat silly until he is traded)- The Rays and B.J. Upton being involved- NO! The Reds and Yonder Alonso (hmmmm....), the Rangers and Justin Smoak- YES! The Rangers and Omar Beltre (don't know enough about him to have an opinion yet). Another name bandied about from Minnesota is Kyle Gibson in a possible 3 for 2 trade. That would be absolutely fleecing the Twins and I don't see that happening.

[TellItToTheDA]

If the Twins did make this offer (and I could definitely see it, both Hicks and Ramos are blocked in the system, Hicks is one of six major league caliber outfield prospects in that organization, and Ramos, of course, is blocked by Joe Mauer), then I'd definitely pull the trigger. While there wouldn't be the instant gratification of having a major league ready player that could be immediately plugged into the lineup, you'd be getting two players that, I believe, would be starters down the line, Ramos possibly next season, and Hicks two or three years down the line. What intrigues me about Ramos is the fact that he hits for power, AND is known for being a good defensive catcher. Considering what we have now is a guy (he who shall not be named) batting .197 who can't seem to get his body in the front of the ball to block pitches in the dirt, Ramos would be a major improvement. Hicks has a great arm and all the tools to become a great outfielder, even though it will take a few years for him to become polished. Overall, I see this as a win-win trade. The Twins get the ace they need to get them over the hump to a possible title, and we get two prospects that, as far as I'm concerned, will be great.

[phredmojo]

no i would not be satisfied with that deal. lee is worth more. i'll take 2 draft picks before i take 60 cents on the dollar

[TellItToTheDA]

no i would not be satisfied with that deal. lee is worth more. i'll take 2 draft picks before i take 60 cents on the dollar

Lee's value is set by whatever teams offer for him. No matter what, you take the best offer out there before the deadline. Taking the draft picks (which, if the Yankees were to sign Lee, would be very low) would set this team back so much further than if you were to get a catcher who could already step in and start, and an outfielder who could be a major contributor in a couple of years.

[phredmojo]

no you don't take the best offer out there. you take the deal that is so good it blows you away so much that you can't not take it. if you don't get that deal, then you don't settle for the best offer out there and you don't trade him. teams will pay the price or they will watch the yankees knock them out in the playoffs. period

[TellItToTheDA]

no you don't take the best offer out there. you take the deal that is so good it blows you away so much that you can't not take it. if you don't get that deal, then you don't settle for the best offer out there and you don't trade him. teams will pay the price or they will watch the yankees knock them out in the playoffs. period

WE CANNOT TAKE THE DRAFT PICKS. It's almost a foregone conclusion that the Yankees are going to sign Cliff Lee in the offseason. You know what that would mean for us? If they do knock everyone out of the playoffs like you say, that will get us the 30th pick, and a sandwich pick. We can't settle for that. The 30th pick isn't a major league ready player. A sandwich pick wouldn't be one either. You take what you can get, and Z knows that, knowing full well that if he doesn't put a contender out there soon, he may not get to see when those picks possibly (if ever) make it to the majors.

[phredmojo]

yes we can take the picks and no lee isn't going to be a yankee in 2011. more then likley he will be a philly, but he will not be a yankee. as far as major league ready neither is hicks or ramos. hicks is at least 2-3 years away and ramos may never be ready. only a bad GM (bavasi) takes what he can get. a good GM takes what he can get and also takes what people say he can't get. you get taken in this trade and you will be taken in future trades as well. the M's don't need to settle, other teams however do need to pay.

[TellItToTheDA]

yes we can take the picks and no lee isn't going to be a yankee in 2011. more then likley he will be a philly, but he will not be a yankee. as far as major league ready neither is hicks or ramos. hicks is at least 2-3 years away and ramos may never be ready. only a bad GM (bavasi) takes what he can get. a good GM takes what he can get and also takes what people say he can't get. you get taken in this trade and you will be taken in future trades as well. the M's don't need to settle, other teams however do need to pay.

We're going to have to agree to disagree on all accounts. But to say Ramos may never be major league ready? I don't know, he sure looked good when he was up with the Twins when Joe Mauer was hurt in May.

[phredmojo]

sample size. he could be good or he could turn into jeff clement. with catchers the odds against are a lot better then the odds for

[JosephC]

Well it's time we look at his AAA numbers this year and he's hitting .208. That is a big red flag in my eyes. At the same time, I think this is better than 2 draft picks, those may never even pan out at all, Ramos has shown he has ability.

[phredmojo]

it is better then 2 picks, just not good enough. we can get more.

[clarknova]

Lee's value is set by whatever teams offer for him. No matter what, you take the best offer out there before the deadline.

True. Jack's job is to get the best offer that he can for Cliff Lee. What we can get is determined by the assets of the teams that are willing to trade for him, not an arbitrary value based on what anyone thinks or wants.
My opinion is that the two draft picks would be worth far less than pro-ball tested players. For every Nick Franklin that is drafted there is a Steven Baron, or a Josh Fields. These guys could still get good, but they could also fall off the map.

My only hope is that we trade for talent, and not for need if we simply can't get MLB ready players now. It would be great if we could get Joey Votto, but we can't. The Reds will not trade him for Cliff Lee. We can't force teams to give us what we want... Unless Jack truly is Lex Luthor and Humpty
Dumpty's love child... In which case... I want Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols with the Cardinals picking up their salaries.


sample size. he could be good or he could turn into jeff clement. with catchers the odds against are a lot better then the odds for

Also true. Where as it's not a point against Wilson Ramos that he hit well when he got a chance to play in the bigs, it really doesn't mean that much. I mean, it's not a bad thing, it's just not enough to call him a future star or even a sure fire starter. Judging a player based on a "cup of coffee" sample size is like judging 1st year prospects on raw numbers. You just can't do it. It's why Hicks is rated as high as the 19th best prospect in the country when his numbers are not great. Talent scouts and evaluators look at his tools and his "make up". That dude is still a kid. 4 years from now, if he continues to work and improve... That's what people are looking at. Not sticking him in left field at Safeco tomorrow, or next year for that matter.

Also, having a strong farm system is not only important for developing our own players, but for making trades for other players down the road. We had one of the worst farms in all of baseball talent wise going into the 2009 season, and hate him or not, Jack and his FO has almost completely turned that around. Jack has said before that "the minor league system should feed your major league team, and that's not happening right now". There's more than one way to feed that team.

The way I see it- Wilson Ramos > Rob Johnson, Wilson Ramos > Josh Bard, Wilson Ramos = Adam Moore

He would not be bad to have. Better to have 2 Adam Moores and let the best man win, than anything we have on the table now, or for the foreseeable future- But he is not another Joe Mauer that just happens to be blocked by Joe Mauer, and he's not really even close.

[phredmojo]

it is better then 2 picks, just not good enough. we can get more.


see we got more :)

[JosephC]

do you like what we got, phred?

[SeaTownJosh]

I just hope this hitter isnt garbage like i think it might be.

[phredmojo]

do you like what we got, phred?

would have liked more. but overall it was the best deal available at the time and it pissed yankee fans off, hurt the angels for 3 months and hurt the rangers for a few years lol

[mikepelfrey]

would have liked more. but overall it was the best deal available at the time and it pissed yankee fans off, hurt the angels for 3 months and hurt the rangers for a few years lol

shows how bad of a GM you would be have you seen what Montero has done in the last month he's hit over 400 and your beloved Josh has hit 169 striking out at an abominable rate. you may have pissed of yankee fans but now they'll have lee and montero,

youre such a tool because Lee has aleady said that in an interview on WEPN that he's a ranger now, but if The Rangers do not sign him and He becomes a free agent, Then yes he wouldnt mind being in NY

I know My team Wont spend for Cliff, and The Phils have to pay The 2 Roys and Hamel so your philly thought is ridiculous, Lee Will most likely be a Yankee now and Theyll have Montero too A 20 year old stud, instead of a Mariner.....

good call Sherlock...... Remember your socks go on before your shoes, obviously you need a reminder

[clarknova]

shows how bad of a GM you would be have you seen what Montero has done in the last month he's hit over 400 and your beloved Josh has hit 169 striking out at an abominable rate. you may have pissed of yankee fans but now they'll have lee and montero,

youre such a tool because Lee has aleady said that in an interview on WEPN that he's a ranger now, but if The Rangers do not sign him and He becomes a free agent, Then yes he wouldnt mind being in NY

I know My team Wont spend for Cliff, and The Phils have to pay The 2 Roys and Hamel so your philly thought is ridiculous, Lee Will most likely be a Yankee now and Theyll have Montero too A 20 year old stud, instead of a Mariner.....

good call Sherlock...... Remember your socks go on before your shoes, obviously you need a reminder

Marinersteve?
Is this the forum's first official troll? I can tell by the signature lack of any basic grasp of the English language and "3rd grader with A.D.D." grammar. I can't decide if my favorite part is how in your first "paragraph" your first "sentence" has no period, and your last "sentence" ends with a comma, or that you refer to Justin Smoak as "beloved Josh". What's with the random capitalization? Sausage fingers? Isn't it a little early for malt liquor? Everything about that post was funny. Joseph, are you posing as a troll to get some excitement going?

[phredmojo]

shows how bad of a GM you would be have you seen what Montero has done in the last month he's hit over 400 and your beloved Josh has hit 169 striking out at an abominable rate. you may have pissed of yankee fans but now they'll have lee and montero,

youre such a tool because Lee has aleady said that in an interview on WEPN that he's a ranger now, but if The Rangers do not sign him and He becomes a free agent, Then yes he wouldnt mind being in NY

I know My team Wont spend for Cliff, and The Phils have to pay The 2 Roys and Hamel so your philly thought is ridiculous, Lee Will most likely be a Yankee now and Theyll have Montero too A 20 year old stud, instead of a Mariner.....

good call Sherlock...... Remember your socks go on before your shoes, obviously you need a reminder


lol. i'll give you a 2 out of 10.

[mikepelfrey]

I'd give you a 1 out of 10. You guys think this is an english class or a baseball forum.. The fact is that the Mariners gave up a certified ace and got a 24 year old prospect who appears to be more of a suspect at this point. The fact of the matter is you were very vocally in favor of Smoak over Montero and to this point the Mariners have been screwed... make all the snide ratings you want but it doesn't hide the fact that you were a horrible judge of talent.

If you cant defend your evaluation, I guess giving a lesson in english or giving a poor grade is a great way to obfuscate your lack of ability to judge talent. Well done.

[TellItToTheDA]

I'd give you a 1 out of 10. You guys think this is an english class or a baseball forum.. The fact is that the Mariners gave up a certified ace and got a 24 year old prospect who appears to be more of a suspect at this point. The fact of the matter is you were very vocally in favor of Smoak over Montero and to this point the Mariners have been screwed... make all the snide ratings you want but it doesn't hide the fact that you were a horrible judge of talent.

If you cant defend your evaluation, I guess giving a lesson in english or giving a poor grade is a great way to obfuscate your lack of ability to judge talent. Well done.

Are you for real? I'll break down every single one of your points just to shut you (I took this out) up:


The fact is that the Mariners gave up a certified ace

A certified ace who was going to be a free agent at the end of the year, who wasn't coming back by any stretch of the imagination. By the way, judging by his last few performances, the guy hasn't exactly been walking on water.


and got a 24 year old prospect who appears to be more of a suspect at this point.

Boy oh boy am I disappointed that we got a guy that was ranked in the Top 10 of every single prospect list, who's finally looking comfortable in Tacoma (batting .297 in his last 10 games, and that kind of average isn't suspect. Not to mention his 20 homers in AAA and the bigs), along with the Rangers 2007 First Round Pick in Blake Beavan, and reliever Josh Leuke, who's tearing up AAA. Even better, we took all these assets from a division rival.


The fact of the matter is you were very vocally in favor of Smoak over Montero and to this point the Mariners have been screwed

Because acquiring Smoak, was, is, and always will be the better trade. If you haven't noticed, we do have Adam Moore (ranked 3rd in the system by Baseball America) at catcher. And Steve Baron in the pipeline. The cupboard was completely bare at first base. Brad Nelson? Johan Limonta? No. The opportunity to get a Top 10 Prospect that was a first baseman was just too good to pass up.


make all the snide ratings you want but it doesn't hide the fact that you were a horrible judge of talent.

Sample size. What you don't seem to understand is that many others (Keith Law, MLB.com) ranked Smoak HIGHER (unbelievable, I know) than Montero. First base was a much bigger hole for this team than catcher. Montero's good. He's not what we needed.

[JosephC]

Well I thought about making this an english forum, but I decided to go with baseball. But I can always convert it into the first baseball and english forum if the majority want to do that :). I love a good debate with name calling and all. Let's just not stomp on too many toes.

Mike, I guess what I am trying to figure out is do you think we should have done the trade with New York over Texas? I know your thoughts on Smoak, but have you looked at the other guys in the package as well?

[clarknova]

Big Mike! Using that spell check! Obfuscate? Lol. I'm sorry, really. Attacking one's spelling and grammar is sort of lame. It's really only lame because the next time I make a grammatical error, I look like a hypocrite. I make them all the time, spelling too. The fact is that when you sign up for a forum and just come out swinging at regulars, calling them names, ripping their opinions... You set yourself up for a backlash. Because it appeared that you did that on purpose (the definition of a "troll"), I took the approach of completely ignoring your point, and making fun of you. I mean, you wouldn't get up in my face in person and be all "ur a idiot, i can tell cuz u think josh smoak is gooder than montero ur An dumbAss!". So, when I see stuff like that, my immediate reaction is to classify it as childish garbage and a serious cry for attention.

If you wanted to have a rational discussion about the merits and/or skill set of baseball players and prospects- Hey, I'm game. I love that stuff, that's why I'm here. If you want to jump on here and call my man Phred names, then not back it up with anything other than your own opinion, dude, I'm not having that discussion. The discussion just immediately goes to how lame it was for you to take that approach. It's pretty universal in sports forums, so, you're either new, or you're a troll, either way... My take is- get with the program, or get shut down. Don't act all butt hurt and suddenly smart when I call out your spelling. I read a lot of forums, and there are two kinds of trolls; the loudmouth jerk kind, and the over the top quasi-intellectual thesaurus users. If you're neither of these, and you want to talk about the trade, I'm totally into that. JosephC is right. This is his forum. He clearly wants there to be a little more moderation, and for this to be a place where we can talk about the Mariners with reasonable tact. If you're not into that, check out the Seattle Times Mariners forum. There's so much whining and trash talk over there... That's why I come here. A change of pace. Not to say I don't get all worked up and "pissy" sometimes. I need to check myself as much as I check others. Just come with the facts. Use real information, don't totally rely on what the New York media tells you about their prospects.

Or, stick around. If you're looking for a debate, you can easily find one here. Just try actually backing up what you're talking about. If you read some of the other threads about this trade you might see why we were excited about Justin Smoak and the others we got in the deal. It's not because we think Jesus Montero sucks, I was very high on that trade with New York. I like Montero's bat speed, his hands, he has incredible wrist strength and generates a ton of power with a very advanced natural swing. He has +power, +contact, +swing, average pitch recognition, and average defense. He'll hit for average and power in the bigs, and a lot of people project him to move from catcher to first. The deal with the Mariners is that we suck NOW, we need help at first base NOW, not 3 years from now. We can't roll Mike Carp out there, Kotchman's done in Seattle and Branyan with his back, is much better suited at DH if we use the option in his contract for 2011. I would have been very excited to get Montero, if that's what we got. He could be the next Miguel Cabrera... Or, he could be the next Pudge Rodriguez... OR, he could do neither and spend the next three years trying to figure out what position he's going to play because he's not totally suited at catcher, and has to adjust to playing first at the major league level. His upside is tremendous, but to approach the situation with the attitude that you somehow KNOW that he's going to be an all-star catcher because he's handling a bat well in the minors... Are you a scout? Because if you are, and you think Justin Smoak is garbage, and totally done after what? 3 months in the bigs? You're a poor judge of talent. Some of best minds in baseball rate him over Montero. What do you know that they, or even I, don't? If you want to get down to breaking down stats, I'll go there too. The fact is, the Mariners made the better trade. Period. Montero would have been great. We got a "greater" return. Also, if you're of the opinion that we could have somehow kept Cliff Lee... I'm really not going down that road again. I'll put it like this- $$ = Not infinite. Lee = TOP $. Signing Lee = No $ for ANYTHING else.

So, big Mike, if you want to debate the merits of the deal, bring that S*$t. Otherwise, I stand by my original English lesson.

[mikepelfrey]

ok in 3 seasons Justin Smoak has a Slash line of .285/.404/.458/.863 with 259 total bases. while in 4 seasons Montero has a Slash line of 313/.372/.504/.877 with 659 total bases. Montero while playing in worse hitting parks (especially Trenton, Which is known as one of the most extreme pitcher friendly parks in all of baseball) has a significantly better wRC+ and a better K ratio than Smoak who was hitting in the PCL which we all know is a very hitter friendly environment. And if that wasn't enough Smoak was routinely playing against younger competition while Montero was playing as one of the youngest players in each level he's played in. That 3 year difference in actual playing ages at this point is very telling because as we all know a player who produces at 20 the same as a player at 24 is generally considered to have a much higher ceiling.

Even Keith Law who Phred so glibly referenced in his posts has said that most of his rating was based on the belief that Montero would not stick at catcher, but given that he would move to first base, which as we all know is at the lowest end of the defensive scale anyway, and if by chance Law is incorrect and Montero can stick at catcher, Then Montero's value is exponentially increased because of positional scarcity. A catcher who hits as well as an Average American league first baseman is worth his weight in Gold. As the Seattle pi blog stated:

"For the Mariners, what matters most is the big bat and whether Montero is as good as projected by Baseball America, which rated him the fourth-best prospect in baseball coming into this season behind the impressive threesome of Jason Heyward, Steven Strasburg and Mike Stanton. all making big-league waves already."

Who is Jesus Montero (http://blog.seattlepi.com/baseball/archives/214030.asp)

or as Kevin Goldstein opined about Montero in this years baseball prospectus:

"In terms of pure hitting ability, no prospect matches Montero, whose ability to put up big numbers in horrible hitting environments at levels a player at his age has not right to be in has everyone projecting him as a monster force in the big leagues."

Goldstein on Montero (http://waswatching.com/2010/02/24/baseball-prospectus-2010-on-jesus-montero/)

consider to what John Manuel said in Sports illustrated:

"

Why he's here: The minors' best hitter, Montero gets compared to Mike Piazza as a catcher whose hitting tools far outstrip his defense. The Yankees don't see him as Jorge Posada's heir because his defense is on par with Piazza's or worse.

What he'll be: Because he's likely to move out from behind the plate, Montero should be a first baseman or DH primarily. Other ex-catchers with premium bats such as Paul Konerko and Carlos Delgado leap to mind."



im not saying that Smoak has no future, but I am saying we had 3 months of Smoak in a great hitting environment of the Ballpark at Arlington in a very strong lineup, where he was treading water at best and Striking out at a 150 K a season rate to look at, and this for a guy with more than enough seasoning. it should have made us think twice. And given that Beavan was considered a risk by most scouts since he had injured his arm and had lost some 5-7 MPH on his stuff since being drafted, it made it doubly risky. As Goldstein Wrote:

"It's not uncommon to see that, but it is uncommon to see that big a velocity drop. Yes his numbers are solid, but when you look at the numbers that are really important at the low levels, 73 Ks in 121.2 innings is a cause for concern."

Goldstein on Beavan (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=525)

If as I fear this becomes a one player deal for the Mariners, Smoak has a much higher BUST Potential Than a Hitter like Montero, especially since at the worst Montero could be a DH and even if both fulfill their potential The Mariners still lose, because a catcher Who can hit is rarer than rare.

[mikepelfrey]

Well I thought about making this an english forum, but I decided to go with baseball. But I can always convert it into the first baseball and english forum if the majority want to do that :). I love a good debate with name calling and all. Let's just not stomp on too many toes.

Mike, I guess what I am trying to figure out is do you think we should have done the trade with New York over Texas? I know your thoughts on Smoak, but have you looked at the other guys in the package as well?

Joe Yes, i do. I fear that with Beavans Arm problems which caused him to lose 5 to 7 miles off his fastball, he is destined to be a back of the rotation candidate, but then so was McAllister, Corban Joseph is a decent scrappy infielder, but nothing special. I see this as likely a one player deal in the end. Smoak or Montero, and having seen both up close, The better choice to me was easily Montero.

[JosephC]

Fair enough, you've covered Smoak and Beavan... but you still have Josh Lueke who has been good as well as Matthew Lawson who is tearing things up in AA hitting .333 with a .835 OPS (which isn't outstanding). I guess I'd want to see who else would be included with Montero before I jump on board and say we should have traded with the Yankees. I haven't followed the trade close enough but what have the other prospects done that we would have gotten from the Yankees?

[Nateyb24]

Smoak was clearly the better choice Montero would only be hindered by Safeco he could be the next Lopez in Safeco seriously Right Handers are killed by our park so how did we lose the deal Pelfrey?? Smoak gives us a huge advantage with his switch hitting abilities. Lueke is tearing up Triple A. I seriously don't even know how you judge these players for a few years when they've had fair time in the major leagues.

By the way Pelfrey no way does any of the experts see Montero staying at the catcher position he is just to big and his defense is really suspect.

David Adams is basically what Matt Lawson is doing in Double A some young pitcher that i can't find the name of but i don't think the deal the Yankees were going to give us was better then what the Rangers were giving.

[mikepelfrey]

Smoak was clearly the better choice Montero would only be hindered by Safeco he could be the next Lopez in Safeco seriously Right Handers are killed by our park so how did we lose the deal Pelfrey?? Smoak gives us a huge advantage with his switch hitting abilities. Lueke is tearing up Triple A. I seriously don't even know how you judge these players for a few years when they've had fair time in the major leagues.

By the way Pelfrey no way does any of the experts see Montero staying at the catcher position he is just to big and his defense is really suspect.

David Adams is basically what Matt Lawson is doing in Double A some young pitcher that i can't find the name of but i don't think the deal the Yankees were going to give us was better then what the Rangers were giving.

You are correct about your park killing right handed hitters but so does the Trenton ballpark and Montero after a slow start, excelled there. and you still need to have some right handers to keep opposing teams honest, and if I remember correctly Seattle still does play half their games on the road right?

be that as it may that is the least of my worries, by all accounts Montero will hit, in every level he has hit better the longer hes been there. my biggest issue and one for all mariner fans to be aware of is Smoak's lack of contact, one of Justin's biggest assets in both college and the minors was his base on balls to strike out ratio, he was consistenly better than 1 walk for every strike out it was that plate discipline that scouts raved about along with his power potential. yet in Texas that plate discipline suffered falling to 1.5 k's for every base on balls. Then in seattle he's struck out an astounding 23 times with but 1 walk. Striking out 40% of his plate appearances.... any scout will tell you that is one of the primary attributes of a AAAA player, a player who cant translate his skills from the minors to the majors. To his credit Jack Z, who I know from his Mets days saw that and sent him down before it ruined his confidence.

That's the bigger issue by far. the erosion of a proven strength by a player of advanced age for a prospect. to be sure we wont know about Montero either until he hits the Show but he is only 20 and his track record of starting slow and then dominating each level is encouraging. but right now we don't know. On the other hand with Smoak we have advanced age for a prospect, a hitter in a hitter friendly league, and a primary skill diminishing at an alarming rate.... That is my chief concern for Mariner fans

Joe C, from everyone Ive talked to, none of the other players from either Texas or NY are sure fire. Mcallister was #5 on the yankee top ten but both He and Beaven are seen as at best #4 or #5 starters, Lueke and Lawson are both seen as utility players if they make the bigs and while some are High on Joseph, most notably a Mets scout who tells me he's already better than any one we have, but then I realize we have a black hole at 2nd, so what does that mean? As I said before by all accounts this was basically Smoak and mirrors (had to say it hehe) or Montero and fillers.

if we're depending on any of the others to make or break this trade, we're grasping at straws to be honest. they're bodies added to make it look better especially Beavan, the pitchers to target in Texas are Martin Perez, Michael Main and a kid named Wilmer Font, The Mets scout I talked to said other than Smoak, none of the prospects were on the Texas top 25 or on the Mets Watch list, though he did say Jack doesnt go by any lists and he goes by his own evaluations and he's got a great track record with both the Mets and Brewers

[JosephC]

You heard it here first, I think Lueke has a big career ahead of him. At the same time, I agree with phred, I don't think it'll be with the Mariners (at least the majority of it). Chuck and Cowie won't let him play here with his criminal record.

[mikepelfrey]

you mean the rape charges ? i'd be more worried about the fact that for a guy going on 26, when they couldnt send him back to their Double A team for obvious reasons, that they sent him to single A instead of trying him in triple A, of course he would excel going back a level. Dont be fooled Joe if they thought he was a legit prospect They would have moved him up a level, not down.

They moved him down so he could do well against inferior kids, so he'd be easier to trade, after the no contest plea, the Rangers wanted him gone and by doing what they did they got something for him

think about it, he's 24 and slowly advancing through the system, but he's got a ten cent head, as proven by his poor judgement in raping a girl with his room mate and lying about it, Then all the other teams know he's been in trouble, and he gets sent to a lower level, where he, now worried and on his best behavior, trying to save his career, dominates.

that my friend is excellent rehabilitation of an asset.... do not be fooled

[TellItToTheDA]

you mean the rape charges ? i'd be more worried about the fact that for a guy going on 26, when they couldnt send him back to their Double A team for obvious reasons, that they sent him to single A instead of trying him in triple A, of course he would excel going back a level. Dont be fooled Joe if they thought he was a legit prospect They would have moved him up a level, not down.

They moved him down so he could do well against inferior kids, so he'd be easier to trade, after the no contest plea, the Rangers wanted him gone and by doing what they did they got something for him

think about it, he's 24 and slowly advancing through the system, but he's got a ten cent head, as proven by his poor judgement in raping a girl with his room mate and lying about it, Then all the other teams know he's been in trouble, and he gets sent to a lower level, where he, now worried and on his best behavior, trying to save his career, dominates.

that my friend is excellent rehabilitation of an asset.... do not be fooled

Um, first off, I don't get how he's 24 going on 26. Second, he's dominating in AAA. We sent him to Tacoma, not High Desert, not Everett.

[Nateyb24]

I think he will get his chance the whole case was a bit iffy imo he said she said type things they were both drunk. I really can't sit here and say Montero or Smoak is goona be better i don't know anyone who can make that assumption none of them have really done anything at the MLB level yet so id like to wait and see where there both at by the age of 27.

Lueke will most likely be our closer when DA gets traded no point in holding onto a experienced closer whos going to be costly if we go young.

[mikepelfrey]

Um, first off, I don't get how he's 24 going on 26. Second, he's dominating in AAA. We sent him to Tacoma, not High Desert, not Everett.

get your facts in correct order , this happened when he was a rangers player, your talking about after the mariners got him, i was talking about what the rangers did when he was in double A, when he was released after his sentence the rangers couldnt send him back to the same double A team. it was big news there and how could he survive with the publicity so they had to send him to a different team. so they sent him down from double A to single A. he was 24 when it happened, he'll be 26 in 3 months

it was a big story maybe you should check out espn archives so you know what happened

[mikepelfrey]

I think he will get his chance the whole case was a bit iffy imo he said she said type things they were both drunk. I really can't sit here and say Montero or Smoak is goona be better i don't know anyone who can make that assumption none of them have really done anything at the MLB level yet so id like to wait and see where there both at by the age of 27.




The point is that Smoak has played in the majors and was striking our 40% of his at bats, of course no one knows for sure, but Montero is a much better and much younger prospect,

the 659 vs 259 in total bases career number is staggering to me

[clarknova]

First of all, thanks mikepelfrey. You have my attention. I still disagree with you in basic principal, but that's fine. Your recent comments, where as I don't totally agree, I respect. Besides, without wrong people in the world, I can't feel so very right. (joke). This has turned into a good thread.


You are correct about your park killing right handed hitters but so does the Trenton ballpark and Montero after a slow start, excelled there. and you still need to have some right handers to keep opposing teams honest, and if I remember correctly Seattle still does play half their games on the road right?

Yeah, so they play 81 of 162 games in the same stadium. Smart front offices build teams that play well in their home park, where half of their games are played?? If you have a stadium that murders right handed power hitters and you know they'll have to play 50% of their games there, then it would be foolish to pursue top tier right handed power hitters. Ask Adrian Beltre about that. Power hitting switch hitter. Sounds like a great fit.


be that as it may that is the least of my worries, by all accounts Montero will hit, in every level he has hit better the longer hes been there. my biggest issue and one for all mariner fans to be aware of is Smoak's lack of contact, one of Justin's biggest assets in both college and the minors was his base on balls to strike out ratio, he was consistenly better than 1 walk for every strike out it was that plate discipline that scouts raved about along with his power potential. yet in Texas that plate discipline suffered falling to 1.5 k's for every base on balls. Then in seattle he's struck out an astounding 23 times with but 1 walk. Striking out 40% of his plate appearances.... any scout will tell you that is one of the primary attributes of a AAAA player, a player who cant translate his skills from the minors to the majors. To his credit Jack Z, who I know from his Mets days saw that and sent him down before it ruined his confidence.


For someone that speaks directly to team scouts, you sure put a lot of credence in sample size. I seriously doubt that "any scout will tell me" that when a player comes up to the majors and strikes out at an alarmingly higher rate than they did in the minors that we should all just shit our pants. You compare AA, AAA, and MLB stats like they're interchangeable, then you talk about pitchers parks and hitters parks, and relate them to players who're playing at different levels for incredibly short periods. Then you seem to seek out positive reviews about "cant miss" Montero, and then sensationalize Smoak's struggles. Evidence should seek out a conclusion, not the other way around. If you think that Jesus Montero is going to come up to the majors and bat the same line he did in AA... Not going to happen. How about this line:
65 G, 196 AB, 19 R, 44 H, 6 2B, 5 3B, 5 HR, 21 RBI, 9 BB, 62 K, .218 AVG, .252 OBP, .306 SLG, .559 OPS

That's A Rod's first "cups of coffee" in the majors. Regardless of what everyone thinks about the guy (myself included), he is an unbelievable natural hitter. Wait, let me guess! His age? Should we talk about the Kingdome? Dude, there are so many hitters out there that hit the majors and just pull a "deer in the headlights". They press, and stop allowing their talent to do the work, and that's just what happens. Great players adjust. We simply don't know right now what we have in Smoak, and we didn't before the trade. My point is that comparing stats across different levels of professional baseball is foolish. I could sit here and dig out every negative article about Jesus Montero I could find, about how he's struggled at the plate this year, and more so behind it, where he's been just short of terrible defensively. Leading his league in passed balls. I could quote prospect rating lists. I looked up just one. MLB.com. Pre-season has Smoak at #9 overall, and Montero at #19. What does that mean comparatively? Jack. It means Jack. Personally, I think rating prospects solely on their stats in the minors, college, cape cod league, or Venezuela for that matter is poor analysis. Prospects should be rated on their tools. Both Smoak and Montero have awesome tools as hitters. Defensively, it's not even close. True, it's a hell of a lot harder to catch than to play 1st base, but by most accounts Montero can't catch- at least not at the major league level. He's hitting .285 with 16 homers in 110 AAA games. Who care's if he's playing in a pitcher's park, he plays half of his games on the road, right?
My point here is- if you look at sample sizes of Montero, you can make him look awesome! Or, you can make him look mediocre (which he isn't). Same with pretty much any prospect. If you look at their raw tools and physical talent, both players are great prospects. Will either of them be stars in the majors? My guess is as good as yours.
I would have been happy with either, but your assertion that anyone is somehow totally stupid for liking Smoak over Montero is frankly ridiculous, and I'll say that if Montero becomes an all time great and Smoak becomes Casey Kotchman. With the information available right now, you're not right.

So, if you want to downplay the other players in the trade to try to improve your position, because some scout you spoke with told you that none of the other players are on the "Mets watch list", that's fine. Probably the same scout that thought Jason Vargas was filler too. How can a pitcher be a "utility player"? Do you mean the bullpen? Every team needs a good bullpen.
Downplaying the other "filler" players received in the trade is beyond convenient, and equating the rumored package from the Yankees to the one we got from the rangers is very un-scoutlike.

I'm sorry, but reading thing's like your comparison of Smoak's strike out rate in Major League Baseball and Montero "hitting .400" since the trade in AAA... Come on. Or comparing the left hand advantage in Safeco to Trenton and the AA pitching there? It's a AA stadium.

Ok, let me ask you this. If Montero comes up to the majors, and I should say WHEN he does., if he struggles, and he WILL, are you going to jump right off that bandwagon? If his K/BB ratio doubles are you going to start thinking bust? Man, it's not as if Justin Smoak is struggling to make contact because he was suddenly stricken retarded. He's struggling because he's pressing against the best pitching in the world. It happens all the time. He'll either adjust and be a great contact hitter, or he won't and he'll be a bust. Nobody knows that, but he has just as much potential as Montero.

Let me ALSO ask you this: Are you a Yankess fan? I know you're a Mets fan. What do you think about the Yankees? I'd guess you're not a big fan, otherwise you'd be glad to keep Montero and be laughing at how you're just going to buy Cliff Lee and any other available all stars in the off season anyways. Just curious.

Good posts though, keep them coming. I love a good debate.

[clarknova]

get your facts in correct order , this happened when he was a rangers player, your talking about after the mariners got him, i was talking about what the rangers did when he was in double A, when he was released after his sentence the rangers couldnt send him back to the same double A team. it was big news there and how could he survive with the publicity so they had to send him to a different team. so they sent him down from double A to single A. he was 24 when it happened, he'll be 26 in 3 months

it was a big story maybe you should check out espn archives so you know what happened

I think the bigger story is that you're actually rating a player not on their performance, but what their previous team did to them after they were convicted of rape. Here you go:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa389186&position=P

Peep the K/9. He has good movement on his fastball and shows LEGIT big league closer potential. He's an awesome bullpen prospect.

[TellItToTheDA]

get your facts in correct order , this happened when he was a rangers player, your talking about after the mariners got him, i was talking about what the rangers did when he was in double A, when he was released after his sentence the rangers couldnt send him back to the same double A team. it was big news there and how could he survive with the publicity so they had to send him to a different team. so they sent him down from double A to single A. he was 24 when it happened, he'll be 26 in 3 months

it was a big story maybe you should check out espn archives so you know what happened

I'm sorry, everything was kind of jumbled, I couldn't understand what you meant. But, more importantly, that never happened. Leuke's incident occured when he was playing for Single-A Bakersfield. Now, you're right that he did get sent down, from high A ball to A ball (which is nowhere near the jump in talent that AA to A is). But, after dominating A ball, he skipped right over high A to AA Frisco. Then he was traded to the M's organization, dominated AA here, and was promoted to AAA, where he continues to impress. It's completely irrelevant that he was sent down after being accused of rape, because of the numbers he's putting up now in Tacoma. Also, so what if he'll be 26 in December? I'd wager that he'll be on the big league roster in April.

[clarknova]

That 3 year difference in actual playing ages at this point is very telling because as we all know a player who produces at 20 the same as a player at 24 is generally considered to have a much higher ceiling.

Why do you keep saying "we all know" like I'm supposed to agree with what you're saying before I've even finished the sentence?
If you're comparing the "ceilings" of Montero and Smoak we don't all know that. Smoak's ceiling is Mark Teixeira. Montero's is Mike Piazza.
I'm sure you think the ceiling for Jesus Montero is higher, you seem very very fond of him.

[Nateyb24]

Smoak was brought up to soon look at Paul Konerko he didn't have success until later in his career. I don't see how we can still sit here and compare Smoak to Montero though Montero is still just a prospect as Smoak is they both have not succeeded at the MLB level yet.

[mikepelfrey]

First of all, thanks mikepelfrey. You have my attention. I still disagree with you in basic principal, but that's fine. Your recent comments, where as I don't totally agree, I respect. Besides, without wrong people in the world, I can't feel so very right. (joke). This has turned into a good thread.



Yeah, so they play 81 of 162 games in the same stadium. Smart front offices build teams that play well in their home park, where half of their games are played?? If you have a stadium that murders right handed power hitters and you know they'll have to play 50% of their games there, then it would be foolish to pursue top tier right handed power hitters. Ask Adrian Beltre about that. Power hitting switch hitter. Sounds like a great fit.



For someone that speaks directly to team scouts, you sure put a lot of credence in sample size. I seriously doubt that "any scout will tell me" that when a player comes up to the majors and strikes out at an alarmingly higher rate than they did in the minors that we should all just shit our pants. You compare AA, AAA, and MLB stats like they're interchangeable, then you talk about pitchers parks and hitters parks, and relate them to players who're playing at different levels for incredibly short periods. Then you seem to seek out positive reviews about "cant miss" Montero, and then sensationalize Smoak's struggles. Evidence should seek out a conclusion, not the other way around. If you think that Jesus Montero is going to come up to the majors and bat the same line he did in AA... Not going to happen. How about this line:
65 G, 196 AB, 19 R, 44 H, 6 2B, 5 3B, 5 HR, 21 RBI, 9 BB, 62 K, .218 AVG, .252 OBP, .306 SLG, .559 OPS

That's A Rod's first "cups of coffee" in the majors. Regardless of what everyone thinks about the guy (myself included), he is an unbelievable natural hitter. Wait, let me guess! His age? Should we talk about the Kingdome? Dude, there are so many hitters out there that hit the majors and just pull a "deer in the headlights". They press, and stop allowing their talent to do the work, and that's just what happens. Great players adjust. We simply don't know right now what we have in Smoak, and we didn't before the trade. My point is that comparing stats across different levels of professional baseball is foolish. I could sit here and dig out every negative article about Jesus Montero I could find, about how he's struggled at the plate this year, and more so behind it, where he's been just short of terrible defensively. Leading his league in passed balls. I could quote prospect rating lists.

Ok, let me ask you this. If Montero comes up to the majors, and I should say WHEN he does., if he struggles, and he WILL, are you going to jump right off that bandwagon? If his K/BB ratio doubles are you going to start thinking bust? Man, it's not as if Justin Smoak is struggling to make contact because he was suddenly stricken retarded. He's struggling because he's pressing against the best pitching in the world. It happens all the time. He'll either adjust and be a great contact hitter, or he won't and he'll be a bust. Nobody knows that, but he has just as much potential as Montero.

Let me ALSO ask you this: Are you a Yankess fan? I know you're a Mets fan. What do you think about the Yankees? I'd guess you're not a big fan, otherwise you'd be glad to keep Montero and be laughing at how you're just going to buy Cliff Lee and any other available all stars in the off season anyways. Just curious.

Good posts though, keep them coming. I love a good debate.

see this is where I put my faith in, Talent tells, The Met Scout that I talk to alot, he always says that Age is a big tell, because you always have to compare a player to the level of his competition, While Smoak has been playing against prospects younger than he, Montero has been one of if not the youngest players in every league he's played in.... much like the guy you referred to in Arod. Who in this case is closer to Montero than he is to Smoak since Arod was all of 19 at the time and a good 4 years younger than Smoak is now.

and Im not using small sample sizes i used career stats when I pointed out the difference in total Bases 659>259 A phenomenal advantage when one player is playing in a hitters environment like the PCL as compared to the Eastern league For one who brought up minor to major league equivalencies you certainly dont know how to use them or else youd know that the MLE's favor Montero in every case and downgrade Smoaks, In every single season.

you complain about sample size with regard to Smoak striking out so much, when I wasnt referring to anything other than the degradation of a skill That was one of the basic components of Smoaks profile. His outstanding plate discipline was one of his claims to fame. you may think its a small sample size, but when one of your basic hitting Skills all but disappears that is a great big cause for concern. its not the number of strikeouts thats alarming it the frequency of them occurring. Going from 1:1 to 1.5:1 to 23:1 is the scary part and again we are talking about a basic hitting skill that was one of Justins claims to fame

Montero will likely end up at 1st or DH but its not like Smoak plays a premium defensive position like shortstop, and if by some minor miracle Montero does catch his hitting ability makes him ten times more valuable than Smoak given the scarcity of good hitting catchers,

youre entitled to prefer Smoak if you wish. I just am not going to be a second guesser, I'm being very clear right away with my concerns and the future will bear out which one of us was more prudent, For Mariners and Mets fans We better hope you are, but based upon my analysis I'm saying it doesnt look promising

[Nateyb24]

I read a pretty good article written by Jason Churchill while he does agree Montero might be the better talent he thinks that Montero won't come up for 3-4 more years since hes 20. Smoak will be ready to come into his best hitting years at 24 years old then he can be brought up with Ackley and Franklin isn't far behind.

Its funny alot of people question Jack's pick of Franklin at the time and look how hes turning out. Not as many people as the Baron pick and so far those people are right Lol.

Heres a link to the article:

http://prospectinsider.com/view/'s-still-seeking-their-tinker/

[clarknova]

see this is where I put my faith in, Talent tells, The Met Scout that I talk to alot, he always says that Age is a big tell, because you always have to compare a player to the level of his competition, While Smoak has been playing against prospects younger than he, Montero has been one of if not the youngest players in every league he's played in.... much like the guy you referred to in Arod. Who in this case is closer to Montero than he is to Smoak since Arod was all of 19 at the time and a good 4 years younger than Smoak is now.

and Im not using small sample sizes i used career stats when I pointed out the difference in total Bases 659>259 A phenomenal advantage when one player is playing in a hitters environment like the PCL as compared to the Eastern league For one who brought up minor to major league equivalencies you certainly dont know how to use them or else youd know that the MLE's favor Montero in every case and downgrade Smoaks, In every single season.

you complain about sample size with regard to Smoak striking out so much, when I wasnt referring to anything other than the degradation of a skill That was one of the basic components of Smoaks profile. His outstanding plate discipline was one of his claims to fame. you may think its a small sample size, but when one of your basic hitting Skills all but disappears that is a great big cause for concern. its not the number of strikeouts thats alarming it the frequency of them occurring. Going from 1:1 to 1.5:1 to 23:1 is the scary part and again we are talking about a basic hitting skill that was one of Justins claims to fame

Montero will likely end up at 1st or DH but its not like Smoak plays a premium defensive position like shortstop, and if by some minor miracle Montero does catch his hitting ability makes him ten times more valuable than Smoak given the scarcity of good hitting catchers,

youre entitled to prefer Smoak if you wish. I just am not going to be a second guesser, I'm being very clear right away with my concerns and the future will bear out which one of us was more prudent, For Mariners and Mets fans We better hope you are, but based upon my analysis I'm saying it doesnt look promising

Yeah, I heard you the first time? That was such a complete reiteration that I could literally copy and paste what you copied and pasted of what I wrote as my response to it. Well... most of it. That being said, I don't totally disagree with you. The level of your sensationalism has dropped dramatically though, so it's way easier to see where you're coming from.
The career stats? I already responded to that. I don't think you can compare the stats of two guys playing in different levels of baseball and call it a fair comparison, however, you aren't posting links- you're just posting numbers, so I don't really totally know what you're talking about. I just know that if you're comparing Montero's hitting in AA, against Smoaks, ok, that's a fair comparison. AAA to AAA, Ok, I got your point- Montero had better stats sometimes. I never said anywhere that I think Smoak is a better hitter. I think you can probably find ways to make stats say whatever you want, that's somewhat the folly of sabermetrics. But, I think they're extremely interesting and something as an accountant that I like to follow closely, I just DO NOT hang my hat on them. They are not the end all be all for evaluation, and I don't think they're #1 either, as you seem to agree. As far as MLEs and knowing how to use them. When you demonstrate to me that you're actually using the "E" part of MLE, I'll listen to your stats. Talking about career numbers between these guys if you're taking Smoak's stats in the majors into consideration is totally lame. You can compare stats across AAA to AAA. Or, whatever other level. That's it. Otherwise there is a talent level drop off that has to be taken into consideration. You are not being clear about that.
On to the K/BB ratio deal. Does it look awesome to have your "1st basemen of the future" come up and swing with his eyes closed? No. Do I think it's a harbinger of doom? Not at all. Could it be bad? I guess. Could it be nothing more than pressing and youth against the best opposition on the planet? MUCH, MUCH more likely. Look, I understand your "concern", the issue for me is, without putting on rose colored glasses- Different levels of pro ball have different levels of talent. If Smoak's K/BB ratio did that in AAA, then your point would be much more valid. MY point is that there are so many cases of guys with great talent coming up and freaking out in the bigs at first until they adjust that if you don't take that into consideration- you're relying WAY too much on raw numbers. It's not his "skill" that has disappeared, it's the weaker pitching, and much deflated pressures. Dude, I'm totally repeating myself, aren't I? I told myself I wasn't going to do that.
He'll come around, more than likely. Will he be a better hitter long term than Jesus Montero? I don't know, but he's much more useful with his potential reached to the Mariners than Montero is. You want to take age into consideration, ok, how about development? As far as this trade "haunting this franchise" dude, there have been so many hideous trades made by this team. This one would be par for the course. The thinking that THIS trade would haunt this franchise is like saying Michael Jackson dangling his son over a balcony will haunt his PR image. The franchise is haunted. We can handle it. Trading for prospect is always risky.
I don't necessarily prefer Smoak, I preferred the overall trade, but would have been totally stoked to get Montero. I'd wait for him to develop. He will hit in the majors, as I've said before.



and Im not using small sample sizes


have you seen what Montero has done in the last month he's hit over 400 and your beloved Josh has hit 169 striking out at an abominable rate.

Yes you are.

It's cool though, it seems we sort of basically agree, just not entirely. It's fine with ME if YOU prefer Montero, my main issue is that you seemed to be sensationalizing it way, way more than is realistic, and I was attempting to inject a little levity into the Montero/Smoak debate. There are a lot of people that agree with you. There are a lot of people that agree with you that are Mariners fans. There are just as many that don't. THAT is telling.

One more thing.... How on earth does this trade effect the Mets? I'm seriously curious.

[mikepelfrey]

I read a pretty good article written by Jason Churchill while he does agree Montero might be the better talent he thinks that Montero won't come up for 3-4 more years since hes 20. Smoak will be ready to come into his best hitting years at 24 years old then he can be brought up with Ackley and Franklin isn't far behind.

Its funny alot of people question Jack's pick of Franklin at the time and look how hes turning out. Not as many people as the Baron pick and so far those people are right Lol.

Heres a link to the article:

http://prospectinsider.com/view/'s-still-seeking-their-tinker/

notice one paragraph in the article however Nateyb24:

"Smoak, a switch hitter, has a keen eye at the plate and his pitch recognition was said to be "improving daily" just before the trade."

What was my biggest concern about Smoak? was it not the deterioration of his Strikeouts to bases on balls ratio?

now maybe you see that there was some merit to my thinking

overall I agree however a very good article. I suppose that it depends on whether jack was going to rush who ever he got up here, because he didnt have to bring up Montero until he was 24 to control his prime years just as he has Smoaks........ I would think with the team rebuilding anyway it would be wise to not waste those prime years by bringing him up too soon as it is its not like Pineda and Ackley and Saunders are ready yet either.
The Mariners are still acquiring pieces. say it takes 2 to 3 years to get those pieces, youll have wasted 3 years of the 6 you have of control over Smoak...... while if you leave Montero down, hes still only 23 then and you still have him under control for 6 years. you cant do that with Smoak because hed be 27 by then.

it just seems it would be better asset management to me....

[clarknova]

What was my biggest concern about Smoak? was it not the deterioration of his Strikeouts to bases on balls ratio?

now maybe you see that there was some merit to my thinking

overall I agree however a very good article. I suppose that it depends on whether jack was going to rush who ever he got up here, because he didnt have to bring up Montero until he was 24 to control his prime years just as he has Smoaks........ I would think with the team rebuilding anyway it would be wise to not waste those prime years by bringing him up too soon as it is its not like Pineda and Ackley and Saunders are ready yet either.
The Mariners are still acquiring pieces. say it takes 2 to 3 years to get those pieces, youll have wasted 3 years of the 6 you have of control over Smoak...... while if you leave Montero down, hes still only 23 then and you still have him under control for 6 years. you cant do that with Smoak because hed be 27 by then.

it just seems it would be better asset management to me....


Mike,
Freaking out about Smoak's K/BB ratio in Seattle is the definition of sensationalizing sample size. It's something that needs to be worked out, but again, refusing to take any other data into consideration is the fly in your ointment. Comparing his K/BB ratio to the ones he had in the minors = flawed argument. Suggesting that the stats put up in his first 3 months in the minors means his talent is somehow irreversibly effected = flawed argument. Sample size. In fact, Smoak's history should actually be rather indicative that the problem is correctable. Not the other way around. That's one problem with it.
His K/BB ratio was all over the news before he was sent down. We all know what happened. We follow our players, it's not as if you're presenting us with new data- just so you know. I KNOW, I'm just WAY, WAY less concerned because I understand the nature of baseball as it pertains to young players and talent/skills development. I'm frankly surprised, based on some other things you've said that you don't seem to be on that same wavelength.
Your position lacks "merit" not because your data is incorrect, but more so because your data leads you to an unrealistic, or rather unlikely (albeit possible) conclusion- it seems to be that Justin Smoak's tools have somehow inexplicably deteriorated. Having nothing to do with anything other than the fact that he suddenly can't hit, or draw walks.
As far as asset management, and the Seattle Mariners... You don't know the half of it!
Re: Pineda, Ackley, and Saunders... Pineda and more than likely Ackley will be in Seattle next season. Saunders is already there. He tore up AAA pitching and hit for power. Then, came up in 2009 and lost his pop (must have caught the same disease that Smoak has). The lankiest bunt singles hitter you've ever seen. He really struggled badly. This season he's starting to progress as he adjusts to major league pitching, he's still not a great hitter for average, but is doing much better and showing promise. He might not be the left fielder of the future, but he's turning into a serviceable one.

If you really do think that tools are the most important indicator of talent, I'm surprised you're so "concerned" about Smoak's strikeouts in his first stint in the majors. I understand it wasn't awesome. I just don't think, at this point we should be thinking bust. I really think that's taking it way too far. I also think that the idea that Montero is leaps and bounds better than Smoak in every conceivable way is making an extremely selective comparison.

You seem like a smart guy though, I just disagree with you. Keep posting. I must admit, after your first couple posts this "new" mikepelfrey... You're like a different guy.

One last thing about the asset management. I don't disagree with that. That would be the plan if we had traded for Montero. I think you're relying too heavily on variables and unknowns, but that would have been what I would have looked to do. I would have hoped that they'd stick him at first IMMEDIATELY. The Yanks will likely keep trying him at catcher, which is not a good idea IMO.

[clarknova]

Interesting article about this trade on MLB.com today:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100826&content_id=13946636&vkey=news_tex&fext=.jsp&c_id=tex&partnerId=rss_tex


Oh, and a thought about the line I posted for A-Rod earlier in this thread... The point was that even the best hitters can slump when they hit the majors as Smoak obviously has, not to compare sample size lines in different levels of competition. A-Rods line in the majors has nothing to do with Jesus Montero. Montero is playing in AAA. A comparison can be made when Montero plays in the show.