Mariners Draft Pick Update

[TellItToTheDA]

http://www.prospectinsider.com/view/the-race-for-rendon-and-draft-notes/?PHPSESSID=69b1e834a8ac51cb12cf8dfe56f93bc1


From what I can gather, the M's are likely to get second-round pick Marcus Littlewood under contract before the deadline after midnight eastern Monday, but third and fourth-round picks James Paxton and Ryne Stanek are far from sure things.

Stanek, I was told, is "about 50-50," and Paxton is a zero, meaning, there is very little chance Paxton signs by Monday night.

But he doesn't have to, since he came from an independent league club, and was not a college underclassmen or prep player.

Like Josh Fields before him, Paxton has until late May of next spring to sign with Seattle.

[clarknova]

Paxton and Boras are stupid. He's wasting valuable time. Here's some write ups on the potential signees from behind the subscription wall in PI. Don't tell.


Paxton was a sandwich round pick by the Toronto Blue Jays last June and with adviser Scott Boras looking for Top 10 money, went unsigned. He was unable to return to the University of Kentucky because the NCAA is a group of idiots and ruled the left-hander ineligible. He fell to the Mariners in round four, and for me, that's inexplicable. He's without much leverage, can't go back to college and it would be insane for him to skip another year and repeat the short stints available in the independent leagues.

Paxton brings above-average velocity that sat 90-93 this spring and touched 96 last season in the SEC. The command isn't plus, but the velocity is easy and the fastball has downward plane. He has a slider and a slurvy version of a second breaking ball; the slider is 79-83 mph and the slurve is in the high-80s. His change is all about the change of speeds right now as it offers little sink or fade.

Paxton could arrive in the big leagues by 2011, but with the time off is more likely to show up at the start of 2012 season, despite few concerns about his delivery and arm action. He could develop into a No. 2 starter to sit right behind Felix Hernandez for years to come, but will probably need to pick one breaking ball and go with it, or morph the two together.

TOOLS -- NOW/FUTURE
Fastball -- 55/60
Slider -- 45/55
Slurve -- 45/50
Changeup -- 40/45
Control/Command -- 45/50

Analysis
If you're the Mariners here, you call Boras' bluff on first-round money, take him up to the deadline and see what happens. But the club should be willing to give Paxton sandwich round money at least, or it's a wasted pick. While Paxton certainly does not want to sit out another year, it might be worth his while if he gets low-balled on the signing bonus. But Seattle has a good shot to get him signed, which makes this a tremendous pick, and one that could turn out to one of the very best values in the entire draft.

And if Paxton holds out for Top-20 cash and goes unsigned, it's not a disaster, since it is just a fourth-round pick.



Stanek has touched 94 mph for scouts on occasion but pitches at 89-92 with a power slider in the mid-80s that shows a curveball break. He'll have to stick with the slider, too, most likely, due to a low 3/4 arm slot, which could also make it tough for him to develop a change to keep left-handers honest.

He has a cross-over delivery that some scouts don't like, but Keith Law wrote this spring that Stanek's elbow pronation and long arm path are also concerns, both which worry me more than the step-across delivery.

He's projectable physically at 6-foot-4 and 180 pounds, so there could be more velocity in the fastball -- perhaps enough for him to sit 92-94 and touch 96 when he's fully developed. But the pitch, of the 4-seam variety, has above-average movement at present, though no sink or downward plane, naturally.

His ceiling sits somewhere between a No. 2 and No. 3 starter with the keys being the consistency in his release point, some mechanical adjustments, mainly his arm path, and how he deals with left-handed batters. If he has to pitch out of the bullpen, he could be nasty versus left-hander as a power arm in situational work.

TOOLS -- NOW/FUTURE
Fastball -- 50/60
Slider -- 40/50
Control/Command -- 40/50

Analysis
Stanek was the third best player available when the Mariners tabbed him at No. 99 overall, and brings good value to that spot in the third round, and he's the second prep arm the club drafted in their first three picks, which means the M's identified the value in the class and went after it, regardless of anything else.

Stanek will need time, just like No. 43 overall selection Taijuan Walker, so dividends may not pay off for four or five years, but the Kansas native, upon signing, would already be the organization's third or fourth best pitching prospect.


Littlewood is a prep shortstop with a chance to take switch hitting into the big leagues and yes, he does have a chance to stay at shortstop. Those that continue to say he will not stick is taking the easy way out. Is there a chance he outgrows the position and has to move to third base where his bat may not profile? Sure, but it's lazy and irresponsible to wipe short out of Littlewood's future.

He has great hands, plenty of arm and natural, fluid actions at shortstop, and while he is a big prep shortstop at 6-foot-3 and almost 200 pounds those who had the same questions about Christian Colon aren't looking too smart about now.

And if Littlewood does get to 220 or 225, perhaps that power will be there to profile at the hot corner, and one area scout says he likes the raw power enough already but that the swing, from both sides of the plate, need to fully develop to tap the power.

The Utah product projects to have at least average power with above-average on-base skills. He's an average in-line runner with good lateral athleticism that gives him plus range. His throwing arm grades as a 65 on the 20-80 scouting scale and his baseball makeup and work ethic are all plus attributes.

TOOLS -- NOW/FUTURE
On-Base Skills -- 40/55
Power -- 40/55+
Speed/Baserunning -- 50/50
Fielding Range -- 65/65
Arm Strength -- 65/65


Analysis
Littlewood might use his commitment to San Diego to go down to the wire and potentially sign for nothing less than early sandwich-round money, which is just over $1 million. Littlewood could go to school and show better power and either prove his mettle at short or gain quality experience at third, which could put him in contention for the Top 20 overall picks in 2013. There's a chance, however, that Littlewood's decision to do so could hinge on what Chad Lewis, Kris Byrant, Nick Castellanos and Yordy Cabrera do, as they all sit in the same boat and could be similar talents in that class.

The selection is a terrific one with the upside of a shortstop with average or better power and at least average range. His makeup, approach and feel for the game should make him a high-probability prospect as a pro, perhaps getting to the big leagues quicker than several of the prep players drafted ahead of him.

[clarknova]

Looks like 16th round pick Jordan Shippers signed:

Shipers sits 87-90 with his fastball and his slider has flashed good enough to project as a plus pitch, but he's 5-foot-10 and 170 pounds, which may be the only reason he wasn't a top 50 pick.

Shipers turned down Missouri State to sign.


got $800,000.00 (same as Taijuan Walker), I think that to keep him away from college.

PI is reporting that Littlewood is almost a sure bet to sign by tomorrow's deadline and that Stanek is asking for 1st round money which he likely will not get. They speculate that the M's could lower the offer to Paxton to offer higher than slot money to Stanek as Paxton is pretty well screwed if he doesn't sign and should look no further than Josh Fields for what happens when you try to milk it too much on your first pro contract. Paxton is not subject to Monday's signing deadline as Fields was not, and could drag this out as far as next May, to his own detriment as he is stunting his own development in the meantime.

[clarknova]

I asked ESPN's Keith Law about Paxton and Stanek and if there were any updates and he answered (by the way, I love twitter for this. Just rappin' with Keith Law...):


Paxton not subject to tomorrow's deadline. Stanek doubtful - M's saying they won't pay more than they gave Tajuan Walker.

So, doesn't sound like Paxton gets signed any time soon, and looking grim re: Stanek.

[Nateyb24]

Its kind of stupid if Paxton sits out for more money well i guess Boras is his agent. He has nothing to gain from holding out though he will have to go back to the prairie league and he will probaly get picked even later next year considering his talent is in question probaly now and his signability issues.

Doubt we get Stanek signed he wants 1.5M which is first round money but if we get atleast Paxton and Littlewood signed id say it was a succesful draft for us.

[clarknova]

Per Keith Law:


Seattle signs SS Marcus Littlewood for $900K.


http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=2825

[TellItToTheDA]

This guy writes for Hawgs Illustrated (Arkansas Razorbacks Athletics Magazine, produced by Scout.com), so I'd think he has good sources in regards to Razorbacks players (Stanek committed to Arkansas)

http://twitter.com/HawgsMatt/status/21368907848


One hour left until MLB's signing deadline. Sources tell HI that Zack Cox, Drew Smyly and Ryne Stanek are all likely to sign.

[TellItToTheDA]

Right now, the M's have 10 draft picks that must be signed before the deadline (Littlewood already signed):

http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20100816/BLOG05/100819876


So, the 11 Mariner draftees who do fall under tonight's deadline are:

Shortstop Marcus Littlewood (second round), right-handed pitcher Ryne Stanek (third round), right-handed pitcher Jon Keller (11th), left-handed pitcher Tyler Linehan (14th), catcher Luke Guarnaccia (21st), right-handed pitcher Nick Fleece (27th), first baseman Jonathan McGibbon (29th), third baseman Douglas Peterson (33rd), left-handed pitcher David Rollins (46th), center fielder Colton Keough (49th) and right-handed pitcher David Holman (50th).

[TellItToTheDA]

From Baseball America:


#Mariners did NOT sign 3rd-rder Ryne Stanek. #mlbdraft <JC>

[Nateyb24]

From Baseball America:

That sucks hopefully they get Paxton signed though.