Next year's rotation?

[Igoe4Mariners]

This year has been such a mess next year's rotation is now all messed up.

Here is what I think:

Lock:
Felix Hernandez

Probable lock:
Jason Vargas

3,4,5:

Any combination of...Pineda/Beaven/Rowland-Smith/French/Fister/Robles/Pauley?/Random mediocre free agent pitcher

Thoughts?

[phredmojo]

http://209.85.12.234/1672/27/emo/22_yikes.gif

[TellItToTheDA]

We can never seem to pinpoint what Jack Z does, so I wouldn't be surprised if we make some sort of trade for a pitcher during the offseason. But barring that, I think you have all the possibilities down (personally, I'm hoping for a Felix, Vargas, Pineda, Beavan, Robles rotation)

[JosephC]

Don't think Fister is deserving of one of those spots? I agree Vargas >> Fister thus far.

[clarknova]

I think Jack will probably go out and try to grab a starter either in trade or as a FA. Here's the list of pending FA starters (* = 2011 option):

Bronson Arroyo CIN *
Jeremy Bonderman DET
David Bush MIL
Daniel Cabrera ARZ
Matt Cain SF *
Jorge De La Rosa COL
Jeff Francis COL *
Jon Garland SD *
Aaron Harang CIN *
Tim Hudson ATL
Cliff Lee TEX
Ted Lilly LAA
Braden Looper MIL
Noah Lowry SF
Kevin Millwood BAL
Jamie Moyer PHI
Vicente Padilla LAD
Nate Robertson STL
Ian Snell SEA *
Jeff Suppan STL
Javier Vazquez NYY
Brandon Webb ARI
Jake Westbrook STL
Dontrelle Willis SF
Chris Young SD *

There are a few names I know we can easily eliminate. Food for thought.

Projecting the rotation will be hard because we're in such a flux right now. I'd predict that the rotation will look very different after mid season next year. I agree that Vargas is likely in the mix, and Fister's right there. RRS, Pauley, and French are on the outside looking in. I'd predict something like Felix, Vargas, Fister, Pineda, and then another as of yet unsigned/traded for starter. If any of them falter (Fister) and Beaven or Robles continue to improve (and by "improve" I mean get consistent), I think the youth movement will begin. Fister's had some good starts, and some really iffy ones, but he's been serviceable out there for the most part. I just think Vargas is a better pitcher. I like Vargas' composure on the mound.