Mariners 2011 MLB Draft semi-preview - #2 overall.

[clarknova]

As the season winds down (or is mercifully put to death, depending on your team), fans of bad teams (like me, who is a fan of the 2 worst) do have something to look forward to- almost endless speculation about what the team will do in the off season. I know it's early, but being that the M's are almost guaranteed a top 3 pick in the 2011 MLB amateur draft. I thought I'd start picking apart the options, and while I did that, I thought I might share what I found for those interested.
Most of the blogs that I follow and care to pay close attention to are not doing their draft previews until after the season. Which makes sense, but I need a non-Lueke subject, and this one fits the bill.

If the season ended today the top 10 picks would go in this order:

1. Pittsburgh Pirates
2. Seattle Mariners
3. Baltimore Orioles
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. Kansas City Royals
6. Cleveland Indians
7. Washington Nationals
8. Chicago Cubs
9. Milwaukee Brewers
10. Los Angeles Dodgers

This list is guaranteed to change before the end of the season due to situations like KC and Cleveland's spot being separated by 1/2 game, and Houston being outside the top 10 by 1/2 game.

The Seattle Mariners, as of today are 2 games ahead of Baltimore in the loss column, but I would be surprised to see them do worse than #2 as Baltimore is playing like a better team, and we were 3 games ahead until yesterday when Baltimore was beaten by the Yankees due to a walk off by A-Rod, and Felix Hernandez came 2 innings from a no-hitter where in the M's scored 2 runs. I would also say that barring a miracle, we're not going to challenge Pittsburgh for the worst record. Pittsburgh is way crappier than the M's. They have a comparable (comparably bad) line up and their pitching is half as good as the M's. They also play 6 of their last 15 games against St. Louis and we're 7 games behind for the #1 pick.

As most who follow closely, or even at a distance know, the consensus #1 overall pick (if the draft was held today) would be Anthony Rendon- a 3rd baseman from Rice University. Now, granted- there's some time and baseball to play between now and the draft in June, but for those who're hoping that Rendon falls to #2, here are some things to consider:
-Rendon did come of his second injury before the beginning of the 2010 season, so there is some concern about his health. However, he still managed to exceed his numbers from the previous year when he was named the national freshman of the year. The kid absolutely rakes. In 2010 he hit .394 with 26 HR, 89 RBI, and a K/BB ratio of 22:65 in 63 games! (albeit with an aluminum bat).
-For anyone hoping that The Bucs will pass on Rendon due to money and take a pitcher, I wouldn't count on it. They stocked up on pitchers in the 2010 draft and are always desperate for cheap offense (6 years of Rendon would be well worth the signing bonus if he plays to potential).
-Hoping that they will pass because they already have a young stud 3rd baseman in Pedro Alvarez is also foolish because Alvarez has the physical tools to move positions. That line of thinking would be like the M's passing on him with the 1st pick if he played 2nd because they already have Ackley. Not going to happen. He is the best talent available.

Barring injury, or a drop in skills and production that is simply not going to happen, the Pirates will select Anthony Rendon.

On to the 2nd pick! As has been widely reported this draft is stocked with talent, especially at starting pitcher. Most early mock drafts have Rendon going first followed by 4 starting pitchers. The questions now become, who will the Mariners pick, and who are these guys, and if by some chance they don't take a pitcher, what position players would be probable?

My opinion as of today is that if the Mariners take a pitcher it will be between these players:

1. Gerrit Cole - RHP, UCLA
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrit_Cole
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIzq2QuFmb0

2. Matt Purke - LHP, TCU
http://www.fanhouse.com/2010/06/18/matt-purkes-arm-helps-tcu-to-first-college-world-series/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okybbm-V_4Y

3. Taylor Jungman - RHP, Texas
http://www.texassports.com/sports/m-basebl/mtt/jungmann_taylor00.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MVB_wRINX18

4. Sonny Gray - RHP, Vanderbilt
http://wikibin.org/articles/sonny-gray.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2w4cpzuzqc

Cole seems to be getting the most buzz out of the 4 for the top pitcher to be taken. There are others out there (Like Virginia's Danny Hultzen, Vanderbilt's Jack Armstrong, or Oklahoma HS's Archie Bradley) but for the 2nd pick, if the draft was today, I'd put my stock in the 4 listed above. Again, these guys are all going to play a lot of baseball between now and June.

Position players. When the M's run an offense out on the field like they did this year, it's understandable to hope they get a big bat in the draft. From what I've read, and I'm not a scout (I haven't been pouring over scouting reports and watching hours of video, I've been compiling the opinions of others to see what they think will happen and present the most likely outcomes based on that), the 2nd pick will likely be a pitcher. If, however, the M's decide to buck that and grab a bat, here are some guys to keep an eye on:

1. Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, South Carolina
http://gamecocksonline.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/mtt/bradleyjr_jackie00.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nvp7KZBjCyM

2. Travis Harrison, 1B/3B, Tustin HS
http://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=56097
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=216bWcW3doc

3. George Springer, OF, UCONN
http://www.uconnhuskies.com/sports/m-basebl/mtt/springer_george00.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9QS9Zqfbfc

4. B.A. Vollmuth, SS, Southern Miss.
http://southernmiss.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/mtt/vollmuth_ba00.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkC7a2vZNYo
(also has the upside of having the same first initials as Mr. T's character on the A-Team, where in B.A. stood for "Bad Attitude"... "I ain't gettin' on no plane, fool!" -sorry).

These 4 are in the top 10-15 in almost every mock draft I've found (what few of them there are that are not Bleacher Report, or the like) but it sounds like they'd have to have huge seasons to jump up to that #2 spot.

So, as this changes or I hear anything new (from reputable sources), I'll post it on this thread.

I would be really surprised to see the M's take a player that is not in college with the 2nd pick. They are obviously in a rebuild, and none of the high school talent out there looks to have as much upside as it would be worth to take the risk when what they really need is talent ASAP. That is not to say it can't happen, with all the games between February and June, but it would shock me.

Prospect Insider will be doing a draft preview in the off season that will likely include player scouting reports for members only. I'm a member, and I think it would be pretty faux pas to post the reports, but I'll pass along any info I get from them. If anyone knows the M's minor leagues and amateur players in general, they do.

[Igoe4Mariners]

Jackie Bradley Jr. is a F'N stud! Seen him play in person multiple times against my Pirates. Dude is an athletic freak of nature. Been more impressed by him than Rendon IMO

[JosephC]

Lets bump this back up since we now KNOW the order... Is the thought still Matt Purke? Gonna sticky this too since we will be talking a lot about the draft soon.

[clarknova]

Is the thought still Matt Purke?

Most early mock drafts I've read go: Rendon, Cole, Purke

I've read some speculation that Cole could be taken #1, but most analysts, bloggers, etc. Seem to agree that Anthony Rendon will be taken first. I've read some that Matt Purke is a safer #2, but also that he is overrated, and "unimpressive". Cole strikes out a lot of hitters, but it seems like his fastball control is a bit of an issue. He tops out in the upper 90's. He was drafted by the Yankees in 2008 in the 1st round (28th overall) and is (or, at least was) represented by Boras. The Yankees were reportedly ready to drop $4 million to sign the kid, but he was so intent on going to college he apparently didn't even begin to negotiate with them. The Yankees. Waving millions of dollars at him.
He's a velocity pitcher so he's inherently risky, but also appears thus far to be the most talented amateur baseball player (tools-wise) outside of Anthony Rendon. Imagine the rotation in a couple/few years: Felix, Pineda, Cole if all pans out... Could be dominating.

It's going to be interesting to see once the college season gets started how these guys perform.

Here's an interesting article on Cole written after the 2008 draft:
Best line:
If Justin Smoak was the draft's best pick, Cole was a very close second.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/breaking-down-the-draft-scouting-gerrit-cole/

[clarknova]

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/thehotstoneleague/2013078175_no_2_draft_pick_in_june_could.html

Larry Stone article from today about the #2 pick along with some good "boom & bust" examples.

[Felix = Cy Young]

Nice breakdown by the OP. All of those guys seem like great options.

[Seattle Guy]

When is the draft?

[Mariners51]

When is the draft?
IDK if they've set the official date yet, but isn't it sometime in June or July?

[clarknova]

IDK if they've set the official date yet, but isn't it sometime in June or July?

It starts June 6th and ends June 8th. Here's a link to the MLB Important Dates page for future reference:

http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/mlb/schedule/important_dates.jsp

I've used that page a few times and have it saved in my favorites. It's handy, I'm not good at remembering dates.

[clarknova]

Keith Law, one of the premier baseball minds as it pertains to baseball prospects has posted his Top 50 2011 MLB Draft Prospect List. He writes for ESPN, so of course most of the list is hidden behind the subscription wall. The first 5 however, are readable without a subscription and I'm posting this not only because it's one of the first draft lists that has a position player at #2, but also because Law knows his stuff. Law has it Rendon, Springer, Cole. What I also find interesting is that Matt Purke is not in the top 5. I've heard and read some things about Springer as well as watched some video (see above). Here's a good one I read a couple weeks ago:

http://www.collegebaseballdaily.com/2011/01/26/george-springer-uconn-2011-top-players/

Here's the link to Law's list:

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&page=FutureFifty1.0&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fmlb %2finsider%2fcolumns%2fstory%3fcolumnist%3dlaw_kei th%26page%3dFutureFifty1.0

Springer has an interesting batting stance. It reminds me a bit of a muted Craig Counsell, and a little of Ichiro. Watch at the end of the video on the link- there's a slo-mo look at his swing. He stands back in the box and keeps his knees close together before he steps forward. A lot of baseball to play between now and the draft. Any one of these guys could emerge as the front runner for the number 2, or even number 1 pick. As I see interesting articles, I'll keep posting them on here. If anyone else does- I'd love to see.

[clarknova]

Here's a link to a list of some different mock drafts:

http://thedugoutdoctors.com/2009/08/2010-mlb-mock-draft-database/

Of the 7 listed here, the #2 spot guesses are 2 for Rendon, 2 for Purke, 2 Coles and a Springer.

[Igoe4Mariners]

If you had to pick one of these guys to draft, who would you pick?

[clarknova]

Knowing what I know right now, if the draft were today, and assuming that the Pirates pick Anthony Rendon... I'd take Cole. Hard not to root for a bat though... I wouldn't be pissed if we picked up Springer or Bradley Jr.

[georgmi]

There's a kid in Central Kitsap who looks pretty good to me, and I don't think he's on anybody's radar because he took last year off of baseball to concentrate on his schooling. I'd totally be stoked if the M's took him pretty high.

Just check out that swing:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/georgmi/2461359927/in/set-72157604864206299/

(To be completely fair, I might be just a little biased...)

[clarknova]

LOL! That kid could very well fly in under the radar! Look at the way he keeps his eye on the tee, even after he makes contact. It's the fundamentals- You can't teach that stuff. Some kids have it, some don't.
I've got one that played some last summer too, but something tells me she won't get drafted... Not this year anyway. She's the next Mia Hamm though, that is of course if her professional baseball career doesn't take off.

[Igoe4Mariners]

Knowing what I know right now, if the draft were today, and assuming that the Pirates pick Anthony Rendon... I'd take Cole. Hard not to root for a bat though... I wouldn't be pissed if we picked up Springer or Bradley Jr.

I'd love either of Cole or Bradley Jr. I've seen both in person at ECU when their teams came to Greenville, and both were obvious next level guys at the time -- and that was when they were just a freshman. Cole was bringing absolute gas. Jackie made the most amazing catch I've ever seen in person when he robbed one of our guys on a home run while crashing over the fence. Everyone stood and applauded him in amazement despite him playing for the road team.

[Igoe4Mariners]

Opening day of college baseball today and:

JBJ today, 4-4 with a HR, 3 RBIs, and 3 runs.

Gerrit Cole today, Complete-game shutout, 11 ks, 4 hits

[megamariner]

I really like Bradley Jr

[clarknova]

MLBTR interview with potential future Seattle Mariner Gerrit Cole:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/03/draft-prospect-qa-gerrit-cole.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[clarknova]

UPDATE!

What a difference a couple of months can make. Last fall/winter I had a hard time finding any source that did not have Anthony Rendon going #1 overall to the Pirates. Those that did have Gerrit Cole at number 1, or at least a "1a" usually cited such reasons as "The Pirates need starting pitching", or "The Pirates already have Pedro Alvarez at 3rd". I don't put any credence into either for the above stated reasons. Lately though, public and media perception seems to have shifted. Rendon is no longer a lock at the top pick, and the more I read, injury concerns (up until very recently he's been DHing due to shoulder problems, to go along with his well publicized ankle issues) and Cole's mostly dominating performances this season have seemed to push Cole out front some, and I'm hearing the possibility of some prep names such as Bubba Starling and Francisco Lindor being tossed around for consideration at #2. Keith Law has gone so far as to compare Gerrit Cole favorably to Strasburg. I'm going to post a couple links below, but my opinion is in line with the thought that the M's are very unlikely to sign a high school player. I have stated that the need for fast track talent would be the big reason, but I think the underlying issue is the front office's future. Additionally, as a Pirates fan I read fan forums and blogs and the perception from their fan base is similar, they're thinking at this point it looks like Cole- 6 months ago it was all Anthony Rendon. I think it'll definitely be Cole or Rendon at #2, and either way, we have cause to be VERY excited.

Larry Stone's article from yesterday:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/larrystone/2014609452_stone27.html

Prospect Insider weekly draft preview with some speculation on the M's 2nd pick (62), that I've been waiting for:

http://prospectinsider.com/view/draft-weekly:-m%27s-targets,-davis,-mock/

I don't know why this irritates me, but Rendon's name is not pronounced phonetically. I assumed it was "REN-DUNN". Apparently it is pronounced "REN-DOANE".


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kMRzjLVEdfc

[flyboywhit]

After watching Bradley Jr. at the CWS last year, the guy definately has alot of what we are missing in this lineup. He's got the pop in his bat and even better, he seems to have the cool to handle himself in the clutch. One of the best parts of being in Nebraska, I get to see alot of the talent coming up at the college level. And that Hultzen kid from Virginia definately wouldn't be a bad pick to help with the rotation in a few years. But we need some pop in the bat, and thats why I'm going to go with Bradley Jr. I think in a few years he could definately be a good addition to our outfield.

[Igoe4Mariners]

Rendon! Rendon! Rendon!

[E_Martinez11]

Before the NCAA 2011 Season, I thought the Mariners would have the toughest choice in the draft.

Now, Jack Z has the same decision he had in 2009.

Take the Guy Pittsburg doesnt draft.

I prefer Rendon, (probably from 10 years of Mariners history of no hitting, draft picks)
But I would not be dissapointed with Cole.....

And Seattle has a Great history of drafting #2 and getting talent. (Sonics and Mariners)

[Jared]

I just started thinking about the M's team in like three years with Felix and Pineda atop he rotation with Smoak, Ackley and possibly Rendon in the heart of our order. Pretty sure I have a boner.

[Mariners51]

I just started thinking about the M's team in like three years with Felix and Pineda atop he rotation with Smoak, Ackley and possibly Rendon in the heart of our order. Pretty sure I have a boner.

LOL. that might have been a little too much information man.

[Nateyb24]

Anyone know if Rendon's shoulder injury is a big concern?

[Igoe4Mariners]

Anyone know if Rendon's shoulder injury is a big concern?

Jason Churchill at prospect insider in his latest mock draft,

"But from what I can gather, if the draft were today, the M's would not take Anthony Rendon at No. 2, whether Gerrit Cole was still available or not. His struggles may go further than a bum shoulder, but I learned Tuesday night from two AL representatives that Rendon has a rotator cuff tear or fray."

[worldwideed]

Given Jacks love for the big guys and all these rumors about Renden's health, I'm no longer thinking he's going to be an option.

Anthony Rendon
Ht/Wt: 5-11/180 lbs

I really feel that we are going to draft Hultzen
Danny Hultzen
Ht/Wt: 6-3/200 lbs
Position: LHP

Another big guy but a High Schooler and projected at #4. I don't see jumping 2 sports on this one unless he's a LF with big power that will develop fast.
Bubba Starling
Ht/Wt: 6-5/200 lbs
Position: OF

[E_Martinez11]

I wouldnt mind Bubba Starling (though I think he is gonna use the Nebraska Football thang to leverage monster $$$)

But, since Jack Z hasnt waivered against Boras prospects, I think its gonna be Cole or Rendon.

My dream infield for 2013/2014 is Rendon/Franklin/Ackley/Smoak

But Felix/Pineda/Cole/ rotation would make me happy too

[clarknova]

I've been following this stuff way too closely (It's Brandon League's fault). Cole and Rendon have both taken draft stock nose dives. Cole had three consecutive "bad" starts. The issue there is when your two major comps are Strasburg and Prior... That didn't happen to those guys. They dominated constantly. Regardless of the reason for Cole's struggles, he's had them. The good news is that it doesn't seem to have much to do with his velocity, it looks much more like it's just bad decision making. The difference it seems between a kid like Cole and Strasburg would be that Strasburg's mistakes were still borderline unhittable.
The other side of it is this- From a scouting perspective, it still seems like Gerrit Cole, struggles and all, is the most talented starting pitcher in this year's draft. He still projects to be an ace pitcher on a skill level. These struggles are and should be cause for concern, but he still projects to be the top pick, and if not- I wouldn't be surprised to see the Pirates take Danny Hultzen. There's been some buzz on this kid and he's climbed a lot of draft boards. Then again, I'm with worldwideed- Hultzen to the M's is a real possibility. He's looking like the 1b SP this year at this point, and there are only 3 weeks and 2 days (who's counting?) until the draft.
Rendon... Oh Rendon... Didn't think I'd be saying this, but at this point it would shock me to see the Pirates take him. It's true that he's not seeing a lot of pitches, but the ones he is seeing, he's not performing at all like last season. The composite bats are sure to be a part of that, but none the less- they're a wood bat simulation and the results for him are shaky at best. It's fair to call him a risk at this point. Will the M's take that risk? Wow, I mean, can they afford to? The injury could turn out to be minor, and he could break out and be someone's Evan Longoria. That's a real possibility. Unfortunately, it's now a real possibility that he could be someone's Jeff Clement. I've been enamored of this guy for so long, it's hard for me to say I think the M's should think twice, but if they take him... There's a lot riding on it.

Starling looks like a freak athelete, but his weakest tool is his hit tool and he's a high schooler. He's not even close to Bryce Harper in terms of hitting and power projection, but again, the kid could be a super star- he's got all the qualities- the comp I've heard a couple times is Grady Sizemore. Francisco Lindor is another one. Although he's a smaller guy- He's more like Alfonso Soriano (with a better bat).

It was reported last month that the M's were ready to take either of Cole or Rendon, whichever the Pirates don't take.
A handfull of scouts were polled last week. Nine thought the Bucs would pick Gerrit Cole. Three took Anthony Rendon, and two took Danny Hultzen. Then they were asked who they would take and Hultzen got the most votes, with four.

During a recent radio interview Jack Z made a comment that I thought was interesting. I had posted in this thread months ago that it would shock me to see the M's take a high school kid for a variety of reasons, but most of all the whole "winning soon" and "Jack's job" thing. I don't have the interview handy but he was (again) touting the farm system and when he mentioned the draft he said something to the effect of, "in the draft in a few weeks we'll be getting a young position player or pitcher that can contribute sooner than later". That does not sound like a guy that's preparing to take Bubba Starling #2. Does it mean it won't happen? No. The M's aren't afraid to take high school kids high in the draft ( Nick Franklin, Taijuan Walker etc.), but with this pick, I really feel it's down to Cole, Rendon, and Hultzen. Someone could jump up and they could shock us, it happens, but we're in the home stretch now. Either way, we're about to get a whole lot better on the farm.


My dream infield for 2013/2014 is Rendon/Franklin/Ackley/Smoak

But Felix/Pineda/Cole/ rotation would make me happy too


As long as the injury concerns with Rendon are just that, and Cole develops into his projections... ME TOO!

[clarknova]

Cole update:
Yesterday he gave up 4 runs in the first two innings against Cal St. Bakersfield and lost 5-1. He gave up 10 hits, walked 2, and struck out 7. His record on the season is now 5-6.

[worldwideed]

Got thinking about Rendon more and more. Would Liddi's May scare the Mariners away from Rendon at #2? Ooo, just noticed the strikeouts 55!!! WTF is this kid doing to get 55 Ks at this point. Has anyone been out to see him??

Also found this projection at Yahoo. I can't say I know enough to call it a poor article but where is Jackie Bradley Jr.? Doesn't he usually project in the top 15?
http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/mlb/news;_ylt=AhiQyp31hO7A8PN0rrUl2xO5bZ8u?slug=rs-minor_developments_mock_draft_part1_051811

[Igoe4Mariners]

Bradley Jr. is hurt and out indefinitely. That's probably why his stock has dropped recently.

Also, WorldWideEd, Rendon has walked 72 times this year and only struck out 27. Not sure what stats you're looking at.

[worldwideed]

Sorry for the confusion, I was referring to Liddi's strikeouts.

[clarknova]

Even if Liddi was the best player in the minors, the M's should still take the best talent available in the opinion of the front office regardless of position at that pick. I don't have a lot of faith that Liddi can stick at 3rd, or be a major league regular, but then again I thought Jeremy Reed was going to be a total stud!

I've been reading all the mock drafts and draft chats and speculations and most people seem to be leaning toward the M's taking Rendon. Hard to hate it, risk and all. He has a chance to be a game changer.

Here's a link from mlb.com running through the top 50 amateur talent (in the opinion of Jonathan Mayo). If you've been reading up on the top ten talent it's nothing new, but has some good info on the later picks. due to sign-ability there's a good chance one or more of these guys is available for the M's to pick in the 2nd round. Some good write ups:

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2011/#list=draft

I'd like the M's to take a catcher, a starting pitcher, and then just whatever the best bat available at whatever slot they're at (after their first pick, unless they pick a pitcher, in which case I'd like nothing else but bats).
I'll be honest- if we get Rendon... I'm going to be pretty stoked. Cole worries me more. Hultzen would also be cool. Would be stoked for Starling. Lindor would be cool. I'm way to excited for this thing!

[clarknova]

Presenting... A rundown of the latest mock drafts!
Ok, dudes: We're about 2 weeks away. Here are some links and a short breakdown of what the "experts" predict for the top of the MLB draft two weeks from Monday (not that I'm paying attention).

ESPN's Keith Law, one of the best in the biz in his latest mock draft has it going:
1. Pirates: Danny Hultzen
2. Mariners: Anthony Rendon
Link: http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft/2011/insider/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&page=LawMockDraft1.0&action=upsell&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fmlb %2fdraft%2f2011%2finsider%2fcolumns%2fstory%3fcolu mnist%3dlaw_keith%26page%3dLawMockDraft1.0

MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo projects:
1. Pirates: Gerritt Cole
2. Mariners: Dylan Bundy
Link: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110519&content_id=19299478&vkey=draftcentral2011
(he has Rendon going 4th to the O's)

Prospect Insider (and ESPN.com baseball insider)'s Jason Churchill has it going:
1. Pirates: Danny Hultzen
2. Mariners: Francisco Lindor
Link: http://prospectinsider.com/view/draft-weekly:-new-mock,-notes#comments
(subscribers only)
That's what he thinks will happen, playing armchair GM he'd do this:
1. Pirates: Francisco Lindor
2. Mariners: Bubba Starling
(he likes prep players A LOT)

PerfectGame.com:
1. Pirates: Gerrit Cole
2. Mariners: Anthony Rendon
Link: http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=5677

MLBDraftInsider.com:
1. Pirates: Gerrit Cole
2. Mariners: Anthony Rendon
Link: http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2011/05/18/the-mock-volume-iii/

thedugoutdoctors.com:
1. Pirates: Danny Hultzen
2. Mariners: Anthony Rendon
Link: http://thedugoutdoctors.com/2011/05/2011-mlb-mock-draft/

sportscity.com:
1. Pirates: Gerrit Cole
2. Mariners: Anthony Rendon
Link: http://www.sportscity.com/2011-MLB-Mock-Draft

draftsite.com:
1. Pirates: Gerrit Cole
2. Mariners: Anthony Rendon
Link: http://www.draftsite.com/mlb/mock-draft/2011

Prospectjunkies.com (this is a bit older 05/06/2011, the rest are from last week):
1. Pirates: Anthony Rendon
2. Mariners: Gerrit Cole
Link: http://www.prospectjunkies.com/2011/05/2011-mlb-mock-draft.html

Yahoo! Sports:
1. Pirates: Anthony Rendon
2. Mariners: Gerrit Cole
Link: http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/mlb/news?slug=rs-minor_developments_mock_draft_part1_051811

Drafthype.com
1. Pirates: Anthony Rendon
2. Mariners: Gerrit Cole
Link: http://drafthype.com/2011-mlb-mock-draft/
(they also have Purke going 3rd, and that was updated last week- this is possibly the worst mock I've seen- an injured Jackie Bradley Jr. who was hitting .250 prior to his injury going 8th, and Danny Hultzen's not even in the top 10).

Ball Game Talk:
1. Pirates: Dylan Bundy
2. Mariners: Anthony Rendon
Link: http://www.ballgametalk.com/2011/05/2011-mlb-mock-draft-30.html

Baseballamerica (Jim Callis):
1. Pirates: Gerrit Cole
2. Mariners: Anthony Rendon
Link: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/mock-draft/2011/2611735.html

So, some of these are fan sites and blogs obviously, and I would consider a few to be WAY more reputable than others, but I just thought it would be interesting to look at what others are saying. I also read Pirates blogs and forums pretty regularly (as a fan), so I can tell you that the undercurrent of back of the mind Rendon finger crossing is mutual amongst Bucs fans. Lots of Pirates fans want Rendon.
I'm still looking for the M's to take a college player. Lindor is 3-4 years away from the majors. It would surprise me.

[clarknova]

I've read today that Shannon Drayer interviewed Jack Z, and I'm trying to track down the audio. Apparently he said that he will draft the best talent available regardless of position (not surprising) AND timetable to the majors- which is a clear indication that they're fully prepared to take a prep player if they think he's the most talented player available. This is a definite variation from what I've heard from him before, which is that they're going to get someone that'll be able to contribute soon. 3-4 years from now is not soon. It's obvious that they're not going to tip their hat, but this sounds like they might take a Starling or a Lindor. Getting interesting (for me anyway! :))!

[Igoe4Mariners]

This Lindon guy, I haven't heard much about him. Care to give any insight? I don't follow prep baseball much, unlike the college level. I've been under the assumption that Cole and Rendon were the clear-cut No. 1 and 2 this entire time.

[clarknova]

No prob! Francisco Lindor goes to Montverde Academy in Florida. He is a 17 year old short stop who is 5'11" and weighs 170. At the plate he's a switch hitter with gap to gap power (most of which is generated from the right side) and has a sweet natural swing that is getting him attention from scouts nationwide. He won the home run competition at the 2010 Aflac All American game, but projects (mostly due to size) to be a 20ish homer player in the bigs. He's still got a lot of growing to do. He plays stellar defense, although he tries to be flashy at times and can make some foolish throws. This season he has driven his draft stock up dramatically by showing improvement in all areas including consistent contact and power from both sides of the plate, increased speed, and accuracy of his throws.

Here's some video from the 2010 Aflac All American game where they evidently had one size fits all pants, or there was some sort of MC Hammer tribute going on:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MvdmZt2uu9Q&feature=player_embedded

[Igoe4Mariners]

Sounds like a pick with some serious upside. Kinda reminds me of Jose Reyes.

[clarknova]

Kinda reminds me of Jose Reyes.

You aren't the only one! I've read that at least 4 different places. That's the most common comp. I've seen. The only down side for me would be the wait!

[MarinersAreTheBest]

I would rather have Rendon despite the prospect that the Lindor kid looks like a big-time player. I want a player that contribute quickly.

[E_Martinez11]

Lindor.....
I would Rather have Rendon, Cole or any other player mentioned.....

HS SS who is smaller than Chone Figgins and people say "He has 20 HR potential"......
There are at least 10 other players I would rather have....

But having said that.....If Jack Z drafts him, I will be excited....
The massed that moaned about Nick Franklin (myself included).....
Jack Z is a better evaluator of talent than any of the fans.

[clarknova]

Lindor.....
I would Rather have Rendon, Cole or any other player mentioned.....

HS SS who is smaller than Chone Figgins and people say "He has 20 HR potential"......
There are at least 10 other players I would rather have....

But having said that.....If Jack Z drafts him, I will be excited....
The massed that moaned about Nick Franklin (myself included).....
Jack Z is a better evaluator of talent than any of the fans.

I have a very similar outlook to this, except for the size issue. He's 17, so I don't guess he'll be at 170 at 20-21 years old. I'll bet even Juan Pierre was smaller at age 17. Having a Jose Reyes type at a premium position would be great. I have to ask myself how many short stops there are in all of baseball that are like that. The big issue for me is the impatience. I know that it's not smart to draft for need and that you should draft for ceiling... Or so I've heard. I guess I wonder why it's not taken into account the risk involved in that. I guess I have a lot to learn about scouting and drafting, but when you have the 2nd pick in the draft, it's because you aren't good. I'd rather take my chances on a guy that has proven he can perform against a higher talent level than high school pitchers. That's just me though, I'm obviously no expert. This is a huge pick for this team. In 2005 we were supposed to take Troy Tulowitzki. Everyone thought we would, including Troy Tulowitzki. Bavasi later stated that they changed their mind because they figured if they could hit on a power hitting catcher, it would bee a huge get for the team for years. They drafted for need and we all know what happened. We should all be very grateful that we have very intelligent amateur and international scouting now.

That's a great point about Nick Franklin, a high school player that so many people scratched their heads over until he started playing minor league ball and cracking top prospect lists. That was a Tom McNamara pick through and through. The M's have crazy good talent evaluators. Taijuan Walker? I was so bummed when they took that guy. Not anymore. I have a lot of confidence in them at this point. They've done very little wrong in an area of team building with a GIANT margin of error. I mean if your biggest whiff to this point is Steven Baron, and he may very well have been a signability money move? Not bad. Look at it this way- The year before Jack and his crew took over, we drafted a freaking relief pitcher in the first round! Here's another little morsel about prep bats: That same year (2008) with the 3rd overall pick, the Royals took high school slugger Eric Hosmer. I guess some things are worth waiting for. If I knew now that there was even a slightly higher than average chance that Bubba Starling could be Eric Hosmer at the plate in 3 years... Do it! in 2007 the Royals had the 2nd pick and took another high school player, Mike Moustakas. They're getting awesome returns on these high school bats.

This is my personal, non-scouting based, win-now biased fan boy draft board:

1. Anthony Rendon
2. Danny Hultzen
3. Gerrit Cole
4. Bubba Starling
5. Francisco Lindor

Like Gar said, I'll be excited by whoever they draft because they've earned my trust so far. I know they've done their homework. Jack and his scouts have personally watched all of these kids play multiple times. Here's my favorite pic of Jack scouting- He's watching Gerrit Cole pitch against the Oregon Ducks on May 5th. Just thugged out. I wish he'd throw a gold chain on that outfit.

http://media.kval.com/images/jackz.jpg

[Nateyb24]

Id be happy with any of those guys although i am a bit worried about Rendon he has only hit 5 HR'S with the new bats and has barely played any defense.

[Igoe4Mariners]

Id be happy with any of those guys although i am a bit worried about Rendon he has only hit 5 HR'S with the new bats and has barely played any defense.

Teams give him nothing to hit. It's breaking ball after breaking ball after breaking ball.

[clarknova]

Id be happy with any of those guys although i am a bit worried about Rendon he has only hit 5 HR'S with the new bats and has barely played any defense.

Totally valid. I have the same concerns. Honestly I've just had such a baseball nerd crush on him for so long I think I'm ignoring or choosing to ignore some glaring issues. The fact is that the medical reports will only be made available right before the draft, and only then will the team know for sure (or, as much as Scott Boras will allow them to know) the extent of the shoulder issue. It's true that the bats are going to have an effect. I've heard that they're supposed to be closer to a wood bat, but I've also read that they "just suck" and are only comparable to wood in that they're harder to hit with than aluminum. I've read that his shoulder really isn't that big of a deal, but also that if it isn't that big of a deal... Where's the power? He's apparently swinging through fringy fastballs that he would have crushed last season and that his swing "looks different". I'm basing my fan boy draft board on what I've read based on tools and mixed with an impatience to wait 3-4 years for Francisco Lindor, or Bubba Starling to break into the bigs in what could possibly be Felix's last season. Then again, logic dictates that I'll be more than happy to have that happen then, if these guys pan out, and that the team should pick whoever they think will pan out better regardless of when. Check the top 5 draft picks in the last 10 years and look at how many even played a full season in the big leagues. There are no guarantees.

[Igoe4Mariners]

Anthony Rendon playing live right now on CBS College Sports in the CUSA Championship game. Batting 3rd for Rice. Game just started.

[clarknova]

Gerrit Cole hit 102 on the radar gun last night. Just putting that out there.

[JosephC]

That's some serious heat!

[MontanaMariner]

Only a few more days until draft time!

[clarknova]

Alright, we have our first possibly legit leak as to the Pirates intentions in the draft Monday. They have been extremely close lipped about their board and their plan to this point. They've been doing the same thing the M's have been doing when there's no consensus pick- they just keep saying they're looking at like 5 different guys. The fact is that they probably are, and that this bit of info could change. Don't get too excited but...

According to Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette the Pittsburgh Pirates plan to take Gerrit Cole #1 overall. Here's the link: http://plus.sites.post-gazette.com/index.php/home/dk-on-pittsburgh-sports/110137-wakeup-call-cole-is-no-1

I've been scouring the earth for a legitimate tip on where they might actually go, and there have been a lot of hints that were unsubstantiated and total rumors. They all pointed to Rendon. This is the Pittsburgh equivalent of someone like Larry Stone reporting this (notice how I went with Stone there?), and now the internet is exploding with reports that Cole is going #1. CBSSports, MSNBC, this is awesome if true. Cole scares the crap out of me, and as a Pirates fan as well, I'm questioning the pick.

Now, this does not automatically mean we're taking Rendon. I've read that Tom McNamara (the M's scouting director that runs the draft) is completely in love with Francisco Lindor, but that may be based more on history than fact. He does love to take high school players. He's all about it. Walker and Franklin, both total head scratchers at the time, but their performance and development has given me renewed faith in the Mariners scouting. Whoever we get is going to be awesome.

[MontanaMariner]

Rendon or Lindor please. I'll love either of them.

[clarknova]

Buster Olney hearing from teams that they are hearing that what we are hearing is what they are anticipating possibly happening:

http://twitter.com/#!/Buster_ESPN/statuses/76961664456605696

Keith Law cryptically referred to a crazy rumor, that he asked a "certain" front office person about and was told that it started "somewhere on the internet".

[Nateyb24]

38. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-03-2011 18:48:51
I have heard today that the medical reports on Rendon don't really say much -- they leave a gray area, which some clubs are fine with, some are not.


http://prospectinsider.com/view/draft-board-i?PHPSESSID=f0dc6223f1b183546bbc2a0ab9cb8a29#comme nts

I think we should pass on Rendon if he falls to us to much risk in a #2 overall pick. I realize that he would instantly be a top 3 prospect but i just don't like the fact that his medical reports don't clear anything up.

[clarknova]

It is looking more and more like Lindor might be the pick. Prospect Insider is reporting that they have inside info that he's the guy. Churchill is pretty much convinced. Says he hit multiple home runs including one off the scoreboard in left, and that the M's didn't even bring Starling in. Met with him at length in a closed door meeting. More to come. I'm at the game writing this on my phone. If you're a subscriber at PI, you should read the post.

[MontanaMariner]

I have faith in whoever the front office picks. They know what they are doing.

[Nateyb24]

I really like what i read about Lindor i just hope he grows into 15-20HR pop like some think could be the case. I hope that he signs close to slot though so that we can then get another great prospect at 62.

[clarknova]

Today is the day. As it comes down to the wire it's source vs. source. Churchill is steadfast that from what he has heard from his sources, Rendon is not the pick- it'll be Lindor (Chris Crawford at MLBDraftinsder.com is saying the same, but he probably has the same source). Keith Law is citing intel. from individual sources that Rendon is the pick and has him going #2 to the Mariners. I'm pretty confident it'll be one of those two with a outside chance darkhorse of Bubba Starling. Eeeek Eeeeeeeeek!

[clarknova]

I hope that he signs close to slot though so that we can then get another great prospect at 62.

Take this in a grain of salt, but I've read that the M's are not only looking to get another bat with their second pick, but are going to spend. ie. The Rays, for example can't possibly take the best talent available and hope to sign them all. There will be some "signability picks" with some teams- that will bump talent down and in the most talent laden draft since 2005, there'll be some nice stuff in the second and even 3rd rounds. The M's sound like they're prepared to take who's at the top of their board regardless of money at least at 62. This all remains to be seen, however. The M's don't pinch pennies on draft picks though. Expect some high schoolers, that's McNamara's MO.

[Igoe4Mariners]

Going to be fun...let's get this thing started!

[clarknova]

Update: I'm following Churchill's all afternoon draft chat. He's been informed from a "good source" that the M's are "retreating from Lindor to Rendon". It'll be funny if it ends up going Cole, Rendon after all that. Still totally up in the air, and I'm still totally convinced we're getting Rendon or Lindor at #2 in 2 1/2 hours (but who's counting).

[JosephC]

It'll be Rendon or I'll be eating crow for the next few days. I'm almost positive (no sources though!)

[Igoe4Mariners]

I'm hearing Lindor is a bit of a reach at 2. High upside, but he could fall to 7 or 8 if the M's don't take him.

[clarknova]

Via Twitter:

ProspectInsider Jason A. Churchill

Rendon is the definite leader for the No. 2 pick to Seattle right now. Buzz is the M's are off SS Lindor.

[clarknova]

Buster Olney via twitter:


Pick I'm most fascinated with is SEA at No. 2. The expectation among rival execs is that SEA will take a position guy--but maybe not Rendon.

[clarknova]

Churchill now saying that he KNOWS it's not Lindor, so it's either Rendon or Starling. Draft day is fun!

[Nateyb24]

Churchill now saying that he KNOWS it's not Lindor, so it's either Rendon or Starling. Draft day is fun!

I hope its Starling im not as high on Rendon as some people are but if Rendon proves me wrong and hits 20-25 HR'S a year playing in Safeco i will admit i was wrong.

[worldwideed]

Felix
Pineda
Hultzen in 1214

[Nateyb24]

Kinda stunned but Tom McNamara is good at scouting pitchers and we have alot of righties so it makes sense to draft a leftie.

[clarknova]

I'm stunned that Macklemore is a scout! I thought he was just a sick rapper. Damn, talk about crossover talent. Just kidding. :) I know who you meant.

[clarknova]

So I'm sitting at my desk at work, got my earphone in because I knew I'd be working during the pick. I'm sitting there working with no interruption until literally, the moment Bud Selig steps to the podium- my boss comes over to clarify some points on a pivot table on a spreadsheet right then. As I'm turning to her and pretending that I'm super interested in what she's trying to explain to me I hear "Danny Hultzen". It was like I had just crapped myself. She gave me a weird look, and that's when I realized I was probably giving her one. THEN, I get home to discover that my computer is totally infected with that fake antimalware crap and not only can I not open up my malware removal tools, it's blocking any attempt to even google how to get it off. An odd day.
Regardless, until I see otherwise Jack and Tom have earned the benefit of the doubt with me. More fun tomorrow!

[Nateyb24]

I'm stunned that Macklemore is a scout! I thought he was just a sick rapper. Damn, talk about crossover talent. Just kidding. :) I know who you meant.

Haha sorry i had to look it up to know how to spell it, It's fixed now.

[Igoe4Mariners]

Here is a name to watch in the 2nd or 3rd round for the M's tomorrow...Rookie Davis. The kid is a stud. Committed to ECU, but is projected to go somewhere as high as the top three rounds. This article has him in Seattle earlier this week taking BP and throwing in front of scouts. I'll be angry if he gets drafted because I want to see him play for my school, but him getting drafted by the M's would surely take some of that pain away. I've heard he is asking for a 7 figure deal to keep him from going to college though, which might cause some teams to stay away.

http://www.jdnews.com/articles/baseball-4251-jdnsports-davis-lineup.html