Where Do You Guys See Cliff Lee Being Traded?

[The Lone Granger]

I just though I'd get your guys' opinions on this. Where do you guys see Lee getting traded. Personally to me it's going to be either the Mets or the Twins, but that's just my opinions. Where do you see him going?

[JosephC]

Twins makes the most sense. They've got the options and they've got their best prospect blocked. I really don't know about the Mets hype, they really don't have a great farm system except the one arm and I don't see them trading that for a 1 year rental. I think the Yankees makes more sense than the Mets. Then there is that 20% chance that the Mariners decide to hold onto him since they are FINALLY getting hot.

We kinda had some discussions about that over here if you wanna peak at a few people's thoughts...
http://marinersforum.com/showthread....ns-to-take-Lee

[TellItToTheDA]

The Mets and Rangers would probably be the two most likely destinations, and even with the bankruptcy woes, I wouldn't count out the Rangers (though any deal they'd offer would have to completely blow me away). If the Mets' were willing to deal Jenrry Meija (Top Pitcher/Prospect in the organization), it would be difficult to pass up, since you're then looking at a future possible rotation of Felix, Vargas, Meija, Pineda, and maybe Fister. However, if you deal with the Twins, you're filling a gaping need at catcher with Wilson Ramos, and possibly getting a back end starter in Kevin Slowey.

Frankly, I don't think you can wait much longer if you're Jack Z to make a deal. After throwing two complete games, he has the league's attention. It's nearing the point where you can't build up his value any further, and you're only risking injury by sending him out to the mound every five days.

[clarknova]

Even though this is a repeat thread, I've been on record stating that I don't think it's going to be the Twins. It's a gut feeling, but it's mostly due to the fact that the Twins just simply don't make these kinds of deals unless they absolutely have to. Blackburns crappy pitching lately has made that urgency stronger, because let's face it- their rotation is not bad, but it's not going to scare the Yankees.
My guess is that they let Cliff face the Yankees in his next start- cross their fingers that he does what he does, and then stand back and let the wolves go crazy.
The Rangers, as I've stated would be awesome for these reasons: We'd hijack young talent from the current team to beat in our division and give them arguably the best pitcher in baseball for only 3 months. We're not going to win the world series this year, and the Rangers are not going to be offering any 9 figure contracts in the off season, I don't care what anyone says about bankruptcy proceedings- a team in that kind of flux does not toss around $150+ million contracts, so Cliff will be gone. We'd have at least a couple of their top young talent in our system for years. If anyone would be stupid to make that deal if it is at all financially feasible, it would be Texas, IMO.
I'm going to say if it's between the Twins, the Rangers, and the Mets, it'll be the Mets. As TellItToTheDA pointed out- Jenrry Meija would likely be integral to any deal. I've read speculation that even though Beltran is coming back, they're reticent to trade Angel Pagan, who is having either an anomaly or a breakout season. If we could get Meija and Pagan- I think we make that deal, Meija and Ike Davis would not happen, but that's another no-brainer for me. I don't see them trading Jonathan Niese and we're not going to ask for 2 pitchers alone when we have gaping holes in our offense. Anything short of those deals would require 3+ players for it to make sense to me. The Mets are also a "shoot first, ask questions later" team, so I could see them going "fine, fine, just give us LEE! Take what you want!!" (ok, that's a stretch, but I guess my point is, if you're going to rob any of the discussed teams of young talent, the team that has the largest payroll and isn't afraid to cut loose top prospects would be the way to go). That's my take. As for the injury risk, I see that- that's definitely valid, but for some reason I think Jack wants Cliff to face the Yankees, and then start the bidding!

[TellItToTheDA]

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/ba...aign=Feed%3A+n

The Seattle Mariners still had not made pitcher Cliff Lee available as of Thursday, and had given no indication they will in the near future, according to major league sources. If they do, they will likely not find the Mets willing to part with Angel Pagan or any other major league regular.

The Mariners - or any other team - will also be unable to convince the Mets to part with Jon Niese and Ike Davis. The team is more flexible regarding its prospects than its major leaguers. Jenrry Mejia, Fernando Martinez or any other minor leaguer is available in the right deal. If Seattle does decide to trade Lee, the Mets might struggle to match other teams' offers. The Mariners are reportedly seeking young catchers, and the Mets cannot match Minnesota minor leaguer Wilson Ramos, a top catching prospect blocked by Joe Mauer.

[JosephC]

So if that report is correct and we're looking at catchers... then wouldn't that automatically mean Twins? I can't think of a better major league ready deal than to deal Lee to the twins. That would make me happy inside since one of my two favorite teams will win from a trade.

[phredmojo]

he won't be traded

[SeaTownJosh]

The m's need hiting plain and simple. The pitching looks like this

Felix
Lee
Fister
Vargas
Bedard

That is the best roatation in the leauge bar none. They need a team of ichiro and guti's.

[TellItToTheDA]

he won't be traded

Phred, are you a betting man? Because I guarantee you that he'll be gone by the deadline.

[clarknova]

Phred, are you a betting man? Because I guarantee you that he'll be gone by the deadline.

I second that. I'm all for wishful thinking though, so I would not be disappointed if the M's suddenly declared that they're extending their yearly budget by 50 million and resigning Cliff Lee while also going shopping for a bat. It's just highly, highly unlikely. I mean, I've never actually studied statistics, but I watched a show about the mathematical odds of winning the lottery where in a statistician was standing on the Empire State Building with a nickel in his hand. He asks the audience to imagine a cup on the ground on the side walk below and says that if he faced away from the street and flipped the nickel over his shoulder- the odds of that nickel landing in the cup are greater than you winning the lottery. I'd say the odds of the M's keeping Cliff Lee for the draft picks are only slightly better. Maybe if it was a Big Gulp.
The ONLY logical reason I can see the M's keeping Cliff Lee (and not expanding their payroll to have two top tier giant contract aces) would be to win enough games to make this year look LESS like a total embarrassment, let him walk and take the draft picks. Same with the Branyan trade. I read something on a blog that really put that move into context for me. Something to the effect of "even if it were Albert Pujols it wouldn't make enough of a difference to win our division this year".

In opinion update- I still wish it will be the Twins as a trade partner for Lee, but have a hard time seeing the Twins make that move. They are the best match, but I have to wonder how much of the speculation about them being the front runner comes simply from the fact that "sources close to the team" or "an anonymous AL executive speculates..." that the M's have demanded a catching prospect, and that Minnesota just makes, by far, the most sense.
In a similar matter. I have read extremely conflicting reports about my favorite to actually make the trade (not my ideal match, just the one my gut tells me will make the biggest effort), The Mets, and their unwillingness to deal certain players, and their demand for a negotiating window (see: Johan Santana). Some reports say they'll do it without a guarantee, some say they won't. Some say they will deal certain players, some that they won't. It's all smoke an mirrors. You have Tony Blengino coming out yesterday on the radio and saying the the Mariners are in a position of strength because they "don't have to trade" Cliff Lee. That's the most awesome piece of posturing I've heard lately. Beating even Jack Z's "We're not ready to give up yet. Our pitching is too good." Yeah. Anyone buy that? If you do, I have some lottery tickets to sell you.
I'm reading today that the main piece from the Mets that we would demand and has been discussed in this thread as well Jenrry Mejia has a posterior cuff strain, and will be out for a while. If that is the case AND they want a contract window with Lee, they would be, in my opinion, eliminated as a trade destination. Cliff Lee is not going to sign a contract until after the World Series. That fact- he, his agent, and the Mariners have admitted. The Mets would be out.
Also, I have read some extremely sobering statistics about Wilson Ramos. I was exploding with enthusiasm for this guy based on some other stats I read this year, and what he did in a short stint in the bigs, but I'm also reading some things that make him look like Adam Moore, and we already have Adam Moore...
In any event, the next few days/weeks are going to be interesting.